Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -1.9% 2) Nuclear -1.2% 3) Social Media -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• KEP, RGEN, GOOS, STN, MP, MFC, NTLA, JKHY, BIIB, KRNT, KC, QUIK, PSIX, EQPT, WBTN, LIFE, VNET, BETA, BILI, ALHC, OMER, RXO, PBH, CSIQ, LGN, PDFS, DXYZ, BTGO, GSIT, CRVS, ALMU, LWLG, RVI, MEI and DOCS

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DOCS 2) AS 3) TMC 4) INOD 5) SATS

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CSIQ 2) RXO 3) KROS 4) PYXS 5) INVZ

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) SMH 3) XLF 4) XRT 5) IGV

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Cyber Security +2.9% 2) Networking +2.7% 3) Road & Rail +2.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• POET, ONDS, RDW, PCT, ARX, BRUN, PLGO, KLAR, CPA, AMRC, ENPH, UMAC, CSCO, KNX, PLSE, LUMN, SAIL, SNDR, NVMI, ADUR, ASTS, STAA, FPS, QUBT, DIN, FIGR, EXTR, VSNT, SEPN, NBIS, UMC, CLPT, WERN, WYFI, VIK, F, COIN, WYFI, TFII, WOLF, BN, TTWO, CLBT, FLY, ALGT, EYE, ZVRA, RKLB, JBHT, APP, ASYS, VOYG, RGTI, ASST, FIG, BL, HMC, SHAZ, DRTS, NEXA, IREN, HPE, ELVA, ZBRA, ODFL, CELH, BCC, AIP, WK, GMTL, RLI, AEVA, ARMK, TSM, ARCB, SN, INFQ, HSIC, CRBG, NOW, ANET, NVTS, HSIC, MARA, DT, LBRDK, TSLX, RDY, CHTR, NVDA, CORZ, MELI, MRTN, QXO, AEIS, BKSY, UTI, DOX, INR, PAHC and CIFR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) XLB 2) BILI 3) UNIT 4) BN 5) COPX 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CSCO 2) POET 3) STUB 4) PGEN 5) KLAR

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) DRAM 2) ARKK 3) XLV 4) BAI 5) NASA

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (RBC)/3.33

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Empire Manufacturing Index for May is estimated to fall to 7.3 versus 11.0 in April. 

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.5% decline in March.
• Capacity Utilization for April is estimated to rise to 75.8% versus 75.7%  in March.
• Manufacturing Production for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.1% decline in March. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, US Baker Hughes weekly rig count, (ICE) general meeting, (MEDP) annual meeting, (OII) annual meeting, (COHU) annual meeting, (KRYS) annual meeting and the (FORM) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.9 +.8
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 67.2% of Issues Advancing, 30.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.14 -7.3%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$234.3M
  
• 112 New 52-Week Highs, 39 New Lows
• 54.6% (+2.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.8 +4.8

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 6.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31st 27.0% +3.0 percentage points
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 35.0% +2.0 percentage points 
• US Invades Iran before 2027 28.0% unch.

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 121.6 -.2%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 456.0 -3.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 258.6 +.04%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 155.6 +.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 66.0 (GREED) -1.0
• 1-Day Vix 11.6 +.3%
• Vix 17.6 -1.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .63 -10.0%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Trump and Xi are set to meet in a closely watched summit, where they're expected to discuss the Iran war, tariffs and more. Follow our live blog for the latest news and analysis. 
• Though by the slimmest margin in the history of Fed Chair confirmations, Donald Trump finally has Kevin Warsh right where he wants him. 
• Jeffrey Epstein built a network of elites across finance, politics and academia. By analyzing thousands of documents, Bloomberg mapped its reach and how it widened even as allegations against him accumulated. (video)
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.  

• @ZeroHedge

• Vance Shrugs Off Backlash After Trump Says Americans' Finances Don't Factor Into Iran War "Even A Little Bit".
• Trump Says Cuba Is Seeking Help: 'We Are Going To Talk'. 
• "Completely Insane": Federal Govt Withholds $1.3BN In Medicaid Reimbursements To California, Citing Fraud. 
• America's Fanatical Left Wing Mayors Are A Malignant Threat. 
• Rising Jet Fuel And Ticket Prices Could Disrupt Summer Air Travel.
• 24/7 Live Feed: Watch Humanoids Work On Factory Floor.
• Where Have The Men Gone?
• Japan's Refinery Utilization Hits 73% As Strategic Oil Stocks Flow In.
• The Liberal Media Is Finally Noticing Democrats Are Willing To Shred The Rule Of Law.
• Jensen Reignites Big-Tech Buying-Panic Despite PPI-Explosion, Bad Breadth, & Yield Shocks.   

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Trump touches down in Beijing as U.S. inflation heats up.  
• In photos: Trump lands in China ahead of high-stakes summit with Xi.
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Asia-Pacific stocks eye higher open as Trump lands in Beijing for high-stakes Xi meeting.
• S&P 500 futures are little changed after tech-driven rally leads index to new record: Live updates.
• Cerebras prices IPO above expected range, as Wall Street braces for AI tsunami.    

• @TheTranscript 

• Cisco Q3 FY26 results: — Revenue: +12% to $15.8B. — Operating income: +24% to $4.0B. — Net income: +35% to $3.4B. — EPS: +37% to $0.85. — Operating cash flow: -7% to $3.8B. — RPO: +4% to $43.5B. — Returned $2.9B to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. $CSCO: +12% AH.

• @WallStEngine

• $CSCO Q3 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS Revenue: $15.8B (Est $15.54B) ; +12% YoY. Adj. EPS: $1.06 (Est $1.04) ; +10% YoY. Product Orders: +35% YoY. Networking Product Orders: +50%+ YoY. AI Infrastructure Orders: FY26 expected orders raised to $9B from $5B. 

• @GenFlynn

• @Mike_Pence wants to warn Republicans about the “siren song of populism.” I want to remind him of what the last half-century of his “traditional conservative principles” actually produced. (video)

• @ShadowofEzra

• CIA whistleblower claims the agency “took back 40 boxes of JFK and MK-Ultra files” that Tulsi Gabbard was reviewing for declassification. The whistleblower also alleges the CIA “illegally monitored the computer and phone usage” of Gabbard’s investigators during the probe into the COVID-19 origins cover-up. “These were Americans being spied on illegally while carrying out duties directed by the President and under the authority of the Director of National Intelligence.” (video)

• @NicHulscher

• 20-YEAR CIA VETERAN CONFIRMS ANTHONY FAUCI AND THE CIA INTENTIONALLY COVERED UP COVID’S LAB ORIGIN. CIA analysts knew it in 2020 (5-1 vote). They were literally prepping a public “lab leak” announcement in August 2021… …until Fauci stepped in and BURIED it. (video)

• @BennyJohnson

• Tim Burchett ENDORSES Anna Paulina Luna for RNC Chair: "I talk to Luna all the time. I talked to her yesterday. She'd be great at that if she chose to do that. She would change it." "She's a messaging Goddess. She's smart. Don't underestimate her" "She's well versed, she gets the game and she does it for all the right reasons. She's got a wonderful husband, a beautiful little baby boy, Henry, and that's what she does it for. She does future this country." "But the charlatans that we've kind of, in the past will we'll put somebody in, and then we'll put a good one in, and then then a not so good one in. We need to let represent this group or that group, or whatever, this thought process, you know, that gets us smoked every dadgum time. But she's great. I would love it." (video)

• @TonySeruga

• DEEP STATE DEEP FREEZE: Biden FBI’s ‘Arctic Frost’ Memos Reveal They Didn’t Drop the Case Against Trump — They Cryogenically Preserved It Until 2030 to Strike the Moment He Leaves Office, Assuring President Trump Dies in Prison! Scholars of the Republic have seen this playbook before—from the Star Chamber to the Soviet show trials—but never in the land of the free. In the final weeks of the Biden administration, the FBI’s CR-15 squad and Jack Smith’s own deputy special counsel didn’t shutter their politically charged “Arctic Frost” probe into the 2020 election. They did something far more sinister: they closed the file on paper… while secretly placing every shred of evidence—search warrants, covert recordings, grand-jury transcripts, discovery materials—under a litigation hold until at least February 1, 2030. That’s over a year after President Trump’s second term ends.

• @RepLuna

• The CIA has 24 hours to return the documents to Tulsi Gabbard’s office or else I will make a motion to issue a subpoena. These documents have been requested by Congress.

• @disclosetv

• NOW - King Charles: "My ministers will also proceed with the introduction of Digital ID." (video)

• @Polymarket

• JUST IN: Canada court blocks Alberta separatists’ bid to force an independence vote over failure to consult Indigenous people.

• @WallStreetApes

• Professor Gad Saad: ‘Say Goodbye To America, it’s all Over’. Gad Saad says America will fall to Islam, and we will allow it to happen. He categorizes it as a “Stage 4 cancer”. “We are approaching stage 4, but there is a cure. Here's where I get pessimistic. The problem is that there is no indication that the West has the stomach and the testicular fortitude to actually implement what is easily available.

• @nicksortor

• INFURIATING: Not a SINGLE SENATE DEMOCRAT showed up to the committee hearing with a CIA whistleblower EXPOSING the deep state COVID cover-up Democrats are STILL partaking in the cover-up. NEVER forget that Democrats hate you. (video)

• @C_3C_3

• Until John Thune names the Senators against the talking filibuster and threatens committee positions if they don’t change their minds he is not serious about passing the Save America Act. He is lying. He is a traitor.

• @X22Report

• Senator John Fetterman just confirmed what everyone suspected. Obama has been showing up on Capitol Hill WEEKLY issuing marching orders to Democrats in both chambers. Fetterman said: "I don't know who he thinks elected him to do that — but it wasn't the people I serve." If that's true, Obama is running an active shadow government to undermine Trump and we the people.

• @DawnsMission

• Nature just dropped ANOTHER epic counter to the tick invasion! After guinea fowl eating 1,000 ticks a day, check this out — ticks literally freak out and run from these essential oils: Tea Tree. Neem. Oregano. Black Seed. The little bloodsuckers won’t even touch them. Perfect natural armor for your yard, pets, and family while tick season ramps up. (video)

• @Tablesalt13

• Ahead of this wildfire season it is always important to remember that Quebec is the only jurisdiction in North America that doesn't spray its forests with glyphosate for "forest management" ..... It lets its fires burn. Now.... check out the 2025 fire map:

• @OcrazioCornPop

• 5 RINOS JUST SABOTAGED REDISTRICTING IN SOUTH CAROLINA! These 5 traitors voted with Democrats to BLOCK a 7-0 Republican map and protect Jim Clyburn’s seat: Sean Bennett. Chip Campsen. Tom Davis. Greg Hembree. Shane Massey (called Democrats “vibrant”). 29-17 FAIL. We have the supermajority.

• @newstart_2024

• “All the porn sites are controlled by governments and intel agencies… everything you watch is being stored and will be used against you if necessary.” - Tucker Carlson. He dropped this on Bryce Crawford’s podcast, warning that our most private online habits are being tracked and could be weaponized later. He even mentioned the camera on your phone. Tucker’s blunt message: “Wise it up, boys.” (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.25 -.5 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 41.5 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 109.8 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%. 
• Crude Oil 101.0/bbl. -.02% 
• Gold 4,696.0 USD/t oz. -.23%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.68 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.44 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 122.0 +.3%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.46% -1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.86% +2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.9 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.77%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.14%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.45%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, De-Escalating US/China Trade Tensions, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Pharma Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.1 -1.0%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.8 -.2% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 +2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.13 +1.0 basis point
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.9 -1.6%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 156.6 -.2%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 62.5 -5.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.1 +.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.5 -.1

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -54.1 -.9

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 49.6 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(451 of 500 reporting) +25.2% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 354.29 +.23:  Growth Rate +27.8% unch., P/E 21.0 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.42% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +62.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 856.75 +.76: Growth Rate +116.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.3 +.4 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.01 +1.0 basis point
• US Yield Curve 49.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 188.8 +1.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.7 euros/megawatt-hour unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.9% -.5 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.7% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.47% +1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.21 unch.

• Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 98.5% (+2.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 90.0%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +160 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +38 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +140 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long