Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.0 -.2%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 74.0 +1.0%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 -1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.14 -1.0 basis point
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.1 -1.4%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 156.9 -.1%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 60.0 -3.9%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.8 -2.3
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.5 -2.0
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -53.7 +.4
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 43.5 -6.1
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(453 of 500 reporting) +25.1% -.1 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 353.91 -.37: Growth Rate +27.7% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.2 +.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.36% -6.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +62.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 858.35 +1.70: Growth Rate +116.8% +.4 percentage point, P/E 20.5 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.02 +1.0 basis point
- US Yield Curve 46.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 188.2 -.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.8 euros/megawatt-hour +1.9%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 15.6% +.7 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.0% +.3 percentage point
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.46% -1.0 basis point
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.14 -7.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 95.3% (-3.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 85.4%(-5.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +380 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -4 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -38 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/energy/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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