Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.1 -.3%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.7 -.2%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .28 -4.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.14 -2.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.0 unch.
- Emerging Market CDS Index 159.3 unch.
- Israel Sovereign CDS 60.3 -2.6%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 -.1
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.1 -1.8
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 48.0 +.4
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -82.4 -29.7
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.4 -.8
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(467 of 500 reporting) +27.5% +2.6 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 356.43 +.43: Growth Rate +21.5% -7.0 percentage points, P/E 20.8 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.40% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +67.2% +5.1 percentage points
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 870.01 +.95: Growth Rate +119.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.8 +.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .99 -1.0 basis point
- US Yield Curve 49.0 basis points (2s/10s) -4.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 183.6 -.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.8 euros/megawatt-hour -3.3%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 11.4% +.2 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.3% +30.0 basis points
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.57% -1.0 basis point
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.86 -5.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 84.8% (-2.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 63.9%(-10.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +500 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +55 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +290 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my biotech/consumer discretionary/industrial/tech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
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