Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• American forces carried out airstrikes on an Iranian military site, underscoring the elusiveness of any resolution to the war that began nearly three months ago, despite recent optimism.
• Chinese imports of crude oil are set to drop to levels not seen since the pandemic, as the war in Iran reveals the extent to which demand has disappeared and may not be coming back.
• Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said he expects inflation to cool later this year as the effects of tariffs and higher energy costs wear off, though he warned inflationary risks remain tilted to the upside.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.    

• @ZeroHedge

• The Trump Administration Is in Talks to Fund U.S. Drone Companies: WSJ. 
• Iranian military source told Tasnim News Agency: "A few hours ago, an American tanker was about to pass through the Strait of Hormuz by turning off its radar system, but was forced to stop and return after the IRGC Navy took swift and decisive action and fired at it while US army fired at Bandar Abbas but did not cause any casualties or property damage".
• Texas AG Sues Discord For Deceiving Parents, Endangering Children.
• US Conducts New Strikes In Iran Around Hormuz Strait After Drone Intercepts.
• Viruses For Dummies.
• Inside The FDA's "Cover-Up" Of Child Deaths Linked To Covid Vaccines.
• UBS Answers The 10 Toughest Clients Questions: Part 1.
• US, India Sign Critical Minerals And Rare Earths Mining Pact.
• China's Crackdown On Online Foreign Trades Will Increase Capital Flight.
• Why Is Consumer Sentiment At Record Lows?
• Shanghai, Straits, Semis, & Selling: Black Gold, Big-Tech, & Bonds Bifurcate.         

• @TheTranscript 

• Agilent CEO: "It was an excellent second quarter..." $A: +11% AH.
• Marvell CEO: "We are seeing exceptional AI-related bookings, and as a result, we are significantly raising Marvell’s revenue outlook for both fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 compared with the guidance we provided last quarter." $MRVL: +6% AH.
• $SNOW CEO: "Snowflake delivered a milestone quarter, with product revenue of $1.33 billion, up 34% year-over-year, marking the strongest sequential dollar growth in our history...We are seeing strong momentum from both AI-driven acceleration of our core platform and growing adoption of our first-party AI products, positioning Snowflake to lead in this new era.".
• Snowflake double beat. —Expands AWS collaboration with a $6B commitment. —To acquire Natoma to strengthen secure connectivity for AI agents. CEO: "AI continues to be a powerful tailwind for Snowflake, and Q1 marks a clear inflection point in that journey.".
• $SNOW: +33% AH.

• @WallStEngine

• Texas Stock Exchange is targeting July 6, 2026, to begin continuous trading. S&P Dow Jones Indices will also add the Texas Stock Exchange as an eligible exchange for S&P U.S. indices. 
• $NBIS is hitting all-time highs in extended hours after Leopold disclosed a 5.6% stake in the company.  
• $DELL won a five-year ~$9.7B Pentagon software agreement to provide Microsoft enterprise software across the U.S. military. The deal covers Microsoft 365, cloud subscriptions, and on-prem licensing through a single contract vehicle. Pentagon officials expect the consolidation to cut duplicate software spending and save about $422M annually. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.75 -.5 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 39.75 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%. 
• Crude Oil 90.20/bbl. +1.7% 
• Gold 4,437.9 USD/t oz. -1.0%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.60 -.13%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.28 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 123.9 +.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.50% +2.0 basis points.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.93% -1.0 basis point. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.5 +.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.38%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.08%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and metals & mining shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.