Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Mideast War Resumption Fears, War-Induced Inflation Worries, Profit-Taking, Financial/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.0 -.1%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.1 +4.1% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .28 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.17 -3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.6 +.2%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 141.4 +.5%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 57.1 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 +.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 92.7 +.4

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.1 +1.6

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 68.3 +2.0

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.5 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(428 of 500 reporting) +52.0% +.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 386.45 +.80:  Growth Rate +31.4% +.3 percentage point, P/E 19.9 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.17% -2.0 basis  points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +138.4% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 940.40 +1.32: Growth Rate +81.3% unch., P/E 19.6 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.24 +.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 42.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 180.6 -.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 58.0 euros/megawatt-hour +10.6%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 15.0% +.1 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +5.8% -.1 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.66% +5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.65 +5.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 52.8% (+.7 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 42.3%(-2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +220 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -18 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +16 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +125 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Software -2.3% 2) Airlines -2.3% 3) I-Banking -1.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• USPH, MAC, OUT, CRUS, PRMB, DOCS, MELI, MUSA, TREE, XYZ, NKSI, FLNC, BOBS, HST, TS, TTD, MUR, LINC, ELAN, MAGN, GLF, BVS, Z, GOLF, DUOL, ZG, MIRM, OSCR, PRVA, WDC, CLS, BLBD, AXON, SYM, AGL, WD, KVYO, FIG, ENOV, EPAM, FUN, YSS, CMP, ROOT, VISN, GRAL, COLL, PZZA, BROS, CELH, CCOI, FOUR, DDOG, APP, BBSI, CLFD, HUBS, HONA, TRIP, UTI, ONT and BLLN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) WHR 2) PZZA 3) AIPO 4) EYPT 5) UAA

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PZZA 2) CELH 3) WDC 4) APP 5) HUBS

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) XLK 3) IGV 4) XLF 5) VGT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +3.3% 2) Video Gaming +2.7% 3) Space +2.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• INSM, PAYS, AEVA, CHYM, WPP, PAYC, CACI, MATV, ALNT, SITM, DCTH, CDRE, CAI, ZLAB, TPC, VAC, GCT, FTDR, MGNI, PRAX, TRUP, U, TIGO, SBGI, AVNT, SBGI, EHC, ATI, HRTG, HP, SDGR, DGII, MTSI, LCLN, RDW, AXTI, RMAX, VSNT, XE, ZVRA, DNOW, ORA, CNR, AMLX, OTF, LIFE, ELF, MSI, MSI, RELY, TSEM, ALB, JJSF, ECPG, TTMI, FSK, LBRX, PH, COLD, ALOY, CXW, USFD, DCO, NN, GOOD, SRPT, NBR, SHC, ITT, OCSL, DEO, AMR, VCTR, AMR, ECO, SEI, HELP, OXY, EYPT, BV, TARS, CWEN, VSEC, RL, MESO, VOD, AMPL, BV, ZTS, EQX, SION, BXSL, KNTK, CC, BCE, FWONK, SION, CE, HHH, UBER, STX, GHRS, CENX, JCAP, ALKT, COHR, MDU and VNT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) UWMC 2) INSM 3) CE 4) TTWO 5) AMT 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DGII 2) SOUN 3) CRON 4) CHYM 5) GCT

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) IXN 3) XME 4) MAGS 5) ITA

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ACMR)/.42
• (AMR)/-.43
• (CLMT)/.07
• (ROAD)/1.01
• (FLR)/.70
• (OKLO)/-.16
• (SPB)/1.46
• (TTWO)/.33
• (UAA)/.02
• (WEN)/.16 

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for July is estimated to rise to 82K versus 57K in June.
• The Unemployment Rate for July is estimated at 4.2% versus 4.2% in June.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in June. 

11:00 am EST 

• NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for July is estimated to rise to +3.71% versus +3.67% in June. 

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for June is estimated to rise to +$11.6B versus -$.2B in May. 

Upcoming Splits

• (MNST) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly Baker Hughes rig count and the weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.1 +.6
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 41.5% of Issues Advancing, 55.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.03 -5.5%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$45.3M
  
• 98 New 52-Week Highs, 49 New Lows
• 60.3% (-.%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 66.4 -1.0

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 10.0% unch.
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31st 16.0% -2.0 percentage points
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Sept. 30th 10.0% unch.
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31st 1.0% unch.
• US Invades Iran before 2027 17.0% +1..0 percentage point
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31st 70.0% -9.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 125.9 +.1%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 74.0 unch.
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 90.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 417.75 -6.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 271.0 +.2%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 149.7 -.8%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 60.0 (GREED) unch.
• 1-Day Vix 10.8 -10.6%
• Vix 15.6% -1.6%
• Total Put/Call .82 -2.4%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• President Trump is preparing to impose tariffs and minimum prices on imported polysilicon, a bid to boost domestic production of the material as well as the US semiconductors and solar panels made from it. 
• A Chinese-built digital spyware tool has evolved into a more all-encompassing surveillance technology that’s in use in more than 13 countries, according to new research from a security firm. 
• Carlyle is seeing a thaw in capital markets that is quickening the tempo of exits from investments across multiple industries, CFO Justin Plouffe said.
• Just days after his hedge fund was on the brink of collapse, Leopold Aschenbrenner has made his return to the investing scene, plunking down $400 million to back a privately held company, according to sources.  
• Two private credit funds managed by Blue Owl bought back a combined $90 million of shares, marking a consecutive quarter of repurchases as the asset manager sought to steady the vehicles’ value amid turbulence in the sector.
• The US government’s top information security official warned that computer systems nationwide need to bolster their defenses to meet the growing threat of cyberattacks powered by artificial intelligence.
• A yearslong partnership between India and Apple has established the country as a legitimate rival to China.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.    
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge

• Declassified Documents Show FBI Probed Whether Trump Fired Comey At Russia's Direction. 
• Fresh Panic As Pentagon Has Used 'Virtually All' Its Long-Range Precision Missiles On Iran.
• China's Power Demand Hits Records As Heatwave Grips Key Regions.
• OpenAI drove $24.1B of MSFT AI sales in FY26 (~70% of ~$34B AI rev, ~7% of $332B total). Mostly Azure compute + 20% rev share (capped thru 2030). MSFT holds ~27% stake. Equity in → cloud $ out → stake upside. Classic loop.
• Many of the loser children of my wealthy friends who see no way to emulate the success of their parents, have gravitated toward Mamdani-ism and found community and a sense of purpose by rejecting capitalism as a way to cope with their own failure. Please note they have nor however rejected their trust funds or living subsidies while pursuing their “passions” in NGOs, dabbling in the arts or trying to invest their parents money in “VC”.    
• Senate Panel Says It Has Obtained Copy of Fauci’s Covid-Era Phone.
• Federal Operation Takes More Than 800 Dangerous Truckers Off US Highways.
• Tit-For-Tat: China Hits Back At US With Tighter Drone Export Controls.
• Japan Looks To Palantir For Battlefield AI.
• OpenAI, Anthropic Models Created Fake Profiles, Tried To Trick Humans During Cyber Tests.
• What is the Deep State? A President’s own FBI investigating him for being an agent of a foreign country with no evidence.
• DHS Confirms Over 3 Million Total Deportations, Highlights Arrests Of Five More "Worst Of The Worst" Criminal Illegals.
• Gold Rips, Stocks Dip As Hedgies Flip-Back To Selling Semis; Here's What Just Happened...        

• @CNBC  

• Wall Street's 'fear gauge' is doing something unusual as stocks hit record highs. 
• Fed Governor Cook says she's 'prepared to act' on rate hike to address inflation.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Sandisk, Western Digital, E.l.f. Beauty, AppLovin & more.
• SpaceX ramps up Tesla Megapack purchases in Q2 to power its AI data centers.
• Stock futures are little changed after blue-chip Dow posts new record close: Live updates. 
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.

• @TheTranscript

• Sandisk CEO: "We delivered record revenue, gross margin, and earnings per share, each above the high end of our guidance, and repurchased $4.5 billion of company stock".
  $SNDK: -3% AH.
• Expedia CEO: "We had a solid second quarter, delivering strong financial results while making tangible progress on our strategic priorities. We exceeded the high end of both our top and bottom line expectations for the fifth quarter in a row. $EXPE: +3% AH.

• @WallStEngine

• $META AI HACKED ANOTHER COMPANY DURING TESTING. During a cybersecurity evaluation, Muse Spark 1.1 accessed the public internet after testing firm Irregular misconfigured its sandbox. The model then exploited a vulnerability in a third-party service and changed its internal systems. Irregular said it was the exact same testing-environment issue disclosed by Anthropic last week, not a sandbox escape or sophisticated attack. It said no open security issues remain. Meta is investigating and plans to publish a full retrospective. 
• $AEVA SIGNS NEAR-PACKAGED OPTICS AGREEMENT. Signed a JDA with an optics provider for a major hyperscaler’s NPO solution. Volumes could begin in 2027 and ramp in 2028. If qualified, Aeva sees potential for millions of units annually and hundreds of millions in annual revenue. 
• SANDISK $SNDK Q4 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $8.97B (Est. $8.6B) ; +372% YoY, +51% QoQ. Adj. EPS: $39.25 (Est. $34.45) ; +68% QoQ. Adj. Gross Margin: 84.6% (Est. 81.5%) ; + 58.2 ppt YoY. Q1'27 Guide: Revenue: $10.3B-$10.8B (Est. $11.1B). Adj. EPS: $44.00-$46.00 (Est. $45.50). Adj. Gross Margin: 83.0%-85.0%. Diluted Shares Outstanding: ~155M. 
• COGNEX $CGNX Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $291M (Est. $293M) ; +17% YoY. Adj. EPS: $0.45 (Est. $0.42) ; +80% YoY. EBITDA: $94M (Est. $87M) ; +81% YoY. Oper Margin: 29.4%; +1,200 bps YoY. FY26 Guide: Revenue: $1.13B-$1.15B (Est. $1.11B). Adj. EPS: $1.64-$1.68 (Est. $1.48). Adj. EBITDA Margin: 29%-31%. 
• DOORDASH $DASH Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $4.5B (Est. $4.34B) ; +36% YoY. EPS: $0.46 (Est. $0.46). Marketplace GOV: $33.1B; +36% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA: $914M (Est. $842M) ; +40% YoY. Q3 Guide: Marketplace GOV: $33.0B-$34.0B. Adjusted EBITDA: $950M-$1.1B (Est. $980M). 

• @MerengoFS 

• $DDOG Earnings Preview. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.0% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.0 +.5 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 37.25 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 96.40 USD/Metric Tonne +2.1%. 
• Crude Oil 75.51/bbl. +.4% 
• Gold 4,337.0 USD/t oz. +.7%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.37 +.07%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.55 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 124.9 -.7%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.61% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.96% -2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.8 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.22%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.21%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.