Stocks Soaring into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Diminishing War-Induced Inflation Worries, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.7 -1.2%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.3 +1.7% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .30 -3.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.05 -8.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.0 -1.5%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 140.0 -1.2%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 58.3 -1.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 -.2
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.3 +1.3

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 33.8 -6.7

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 61.5 -.7

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.4 -.4
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(353 of 500 reporting) +55.1% -3.6 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 384.28 +.75:  Growth Rate +30.6% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.1 +.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.17% +2.0 basis  points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +138.4% +.1 percentage point
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 928.39 +1.82: Growth Rate +79.0% +.3 percentage point, P/E 19.9 +.8 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.13 unch.
• US Yield Curve 43.25 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 179.5 +1.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 55.1 euros/megawatt-hour -4.2%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.6% +1.1 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +5.9% -30.0 basis points
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.62% -5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.60 -9.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 53.2% (-4.1 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 44.1%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,530 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -60 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +58 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +182 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% net long