Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Trump administration is discussing additional trade penalties against Canada after Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled dollar-for-dollar retaliation to new tariffs imposed by the US. 
• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and his Omani counterpart Badr Albusaidi discussed an “interim framework” aimed at resuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a joint statement carried by the Oman News Agency. 
• EchoStar allegedly engaged in $1.5 billion of “unusual transactions” with its bankrupt subsidiary, Hughes, according to the US Trustee, who urged the court to appoint an examiner to investigate the deals.    
• Cosmetics are among the hundreds of Canadian products the US hit with a new 50% tariff after trade talks broke down. The move threatens the $10 beauty impulse buy, experts say.
• Artificial intelligence labs and cybersecurity firms are reconsidering the way they test advanced AI models after models from at least three firms jumped onto the open internet and breached real-world victims. 
• Oil loadings from Iraq’s export installations in the Persian Gulf jumped on Monday with seven tankers collecting the nation’s cargoes, the latest sign that regional flows might be climbing. 
• Ghislaine Maxwell lost a long-shot bid to overturn her conviction and 20-year "prison" sentence for helping Jeffrey Epstein traffic women and girls for sex. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.   

• @ZeroHedge

• Macroeconomic Data Is Really A Tool For Government Intervention. 
• "Buffers Running Down Quickly": HSBC Warns Next Global Food Shock Brewing. 
• Bluetooth Glitch Exposes Alibaba's Secret Tracking Of Users, Developer Says.    
• Judge Rules For Doctor Who Prescribed Ivermectin For COVID-19.
• *US STRUCK VESSEL IN CARIBBEAN; KILLING FOUR: SOUTHCOM. 
• China Unlikely To Deploy Bazooka As Economic Pressure Mounts.
• "The Magic Deportation Bus": US Prepares For Largest-Ever Mass Visa Revocation In History.
• Report: Taxpayers Funding $230 Million In Federal Grants Tied To 'Intersectionality'.
• 'I Thought It Would Rise Forever'; World's 'Craziest' Stock Market Suddenly Faces Billion-Dollar Outflows.
• Amazon's New Warehouses May Process Packages 2.5 Times Faster With Far Fewer Workers. 
• Approval Of Trump's Presidency And The War On Iran Hit New Lows.
• Only 35% Of Women Under-25 Have Positive View Of Men; Survey Finds 'Heteroflexible' Is The Fastest Growing Sexual Orientation In America.
• Bonds & Stocks Bid As Oil Skids On Quiet Summer Tuesday Ahead Of NVDA.            

• @CNBC  

• CNBC Daily Open: The U.S. is flexing its economic power — drawing retaliation. 
• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 
• Stock futures are little changed as traders await key inflation report, Nvidia earnings: Live updates.
• Nvidia's 'expectations premium' dogs the stock after earnings. Here's what analysts are watching.  

• @WallStEngine

• SEMTECH $SMTC Q2’27 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS Revenue: $341.9M (Est. $328.6M) ; +33% YoY Adj. EPS: $0.71 (Est. $0.61) Adj. EBITDA: $91.1M (Est. $79.6M) Adj. Oper Income: $83.6M (Est. $68.4M) Q3 Guide: Adj. EPS: $1.05 +/- $0.03 (Est. $0.73) Revenue: $410.0M +/- $5.0M (Est. $379M) Adj. EBITDA: $134.3M +/- $4.0M (Est. $90.6M) Adj. Oper Income: $127.0M +/- $4.0M (Est. $81.5M) Adj. Gross Margin: 58.3% +/- 100 bps Adj. Operating Margin: 31.0% +/- 60 bps. 
• INTUIT $INTU Q4’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $4.4B (Est. $4.27B) ; +14% YoY Adj. EPS: $4.03 (Est. $3.58). FY27 Guide: Revenue: $23.3B-$23.5B (Est. $23.72B). Adj. EPS: $22.88-$23.12 (Est. $27.32). Q1 Guide: Revenue: $4.29B-$4.31B (Est. $4.36B). Adj. EPS: $2.44-$2.48 (Est. $4.04).  

• @MerengoFS 

• $NVDA Earnings Preview.  
• $CRWD Earnings Preview. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 -.25 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 35.25 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 97.40 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%. 
• Crude Oil 80.50/bbl. -2.3% 
• Gold 4,703.70 USD/t oz. +.2%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.38 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.46 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 125.4 +.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.64% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.06% -2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.3 +.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.02%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.20%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.49%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.