Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• The US now expects oil supply disruptions stemming from the US-Israel war with Iran to reach about 600,000 barrels per day through the end of 2027.
• A federal judge in Boston entered a nationwide order blocking the US Postal Service from carrying out President Donald Trump’s directives to overhaul mail-in voting policies before the November midterm elections. 
• SpaceX, Northrop Grumman and other companies developing space-based missile interceptors for President Donald Trump’s $185 billion Golden Dome successfully completed their first key tests. 
• Investors are betting the $5 billion AI music startup Suno will be the next Spotify, but it risks being an early bust. 
• The Securities and Exchange Commission is considering taking direct control of a controversial database that tracks trades across US equities and options markets after Citadel Securities won a lawsuit challenging its funding last year
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• The former chief financial officer of a Miami Beach hedge fund admitted he embezzled more than $3 million over four years at the firm, approving phony invoices and using corporate credit cards for adult entertainment and personal travel. 
• Systematic buyers are getting ready to load up on stocks again after a massive unwind, according to Citadel. 
• Scarcity and profit margin. 
• Memory-chip makers may have found a new defense against the inevitable cooling of their boom: giving more cash back to shareholders. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge

• Mysterious Drone Threat Emerges At America's "Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier," Prompting Curfews.
• Massachusetts Legalizes Abortion Up To Birth As Liberals Cheer. 
• Trump Weighs Call for Capital Gains Tax Cuts as Midterm Boost.
• Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez splits from fiancé Riley Roberts. 
• California Orders NGO Serving As "Financial Backbone" For Singham-Linked Marxism Causes To Cease Operations.
• China's Teapot Refiners Poised to Ramp Up Iranian Oil Buying.
• Hegseth Pushes $1.5 Trillion Military Budget As Tribute To Lindsey Graham.
• Phoebe Gates & Co-Founder Caught In The Cookie Jar: Slack Logs Contradict Phia's '24-Hour Bug' BS.
• Putin Pardons Ailing Former US Marine After Years In Russian Prison. 
• The Diamond Crash Accelerates. 
• *ORACLE HAS DRAWN UP PLANS FOR A NEW ROUND OF LAYOFFS: INSIDER. *NEW ORACLE LAYOFFS WOULD TAKE PLACE THIS MONTH: INSIDER.
• Mideast Malaise & AI Angst Batter Big-Tech & Bitcoin; Bonds Bid On Bad Data, Shrug Off Oil's Gains.             

• @CNBC  

• CNBC Daily Open: Big Tech wants to tap Wall Street's big wallets. 
• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Super Micro Computer, CoreWeave, H&R Block and more.  
• Stock futures are little changed ahead of Wednesday's big inflation report: Live updates. 
• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 

• @WallStEngine

• COREWEAVE $CRWV Outlook: Raises FY26 Guide: Revenue: $12.4B-$13.2B (Est. $12.63B). Adj. Oper Income: $960M-$1.15B (Est. $893M). CapEx: $35B-$39B (Est. $33.3B). Active Power: >1.85GW; from prior >1.7GW. Year-End Annualized Run-Rate Revenue: $18.5B-$19.5B. Managed Inference ARR: $250M+ exiting 2026. Q3 Guide: Revenue: $3.45B-$3.60B (Est. $3.43B). Adj. Oper Income: $200M-$260M (Est. $264M). CapEx: $11.5B-$13.5B. Interest Expense: $860M-$940M. Oper Margin: Expanding sequentially, reaching low teens in Q4. 
• $CAVA GROUP Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $365.4M (Est. $361M) ; +31.3% YoY. EPS: $0.19 (Est. $0.18). Same Restaurant Sales: 9.0%. Restaurant-Level Profit Margin: 25.7%; -60 bps YoY. Affirms FY26 Guide: Adj. EBITDA: $181.0M-$191.0M (Est. $188M). Same Restaurant Sales: 4.5% to 6.5%. Restaurant-Level Profit Margin: 23.7% to 24.3%. Net New Restaurant Openings: 75-77. Pre-opening Costs: $22.0M-$22.5M. 
• SUPERMICRO $SMCI Q4’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $11.1B (Est. $11.55B). Adj. EPS: $1.70 (Est. $0.96) ; +315% YoY. Gross Margin: 17.5%; +800 bps YoY. FY27 Guide: Revenue: $65B-$72B (Est. $52.5B).  
• LUMENTUM $LITE Q4’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $1.01B (Est. $988M). Adj. EPS: $3.23 (Est. $2.97) ; +267% YoY. Adj. EBITDA: $406.4M. Q1 Guide: Revenue: $1.23B-$1.28B (Est. $1.16B). Adj. EPS: $4.05-$4.35 (Est. $3.61). Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 39.5%-40.5%. 

• @MerengoFS 

• $CSCO Earnings Preview. 
• $COHR Earnings Preview.
• $NBIS Earnings Preview.  

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.5 +.25 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 37.0 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 95.90 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%. 
• Crude Oil 83.90/bbl. +.9% 
• Gold 4,449.50 USD/t oz. +.16%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.31 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.46 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 127.5 +.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.69% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.99% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.4 unch.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.15%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.03%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by energy and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.