Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• A drone attack on an oil refinery in western Libya destroyed a storage tank, putting oil facilities at risk and potentially aggravating fuel shortages in the OPEC nation. 
• Gold advanced through $4,400 an ounce ahead of a key US inflation report that could provide fresh clues to the Federal Reserve’s appetite for an interest-rate hike.
• Google’s AI team is instructing applicants to take special steps to avoid their resumes getting discarded by the company's AI systems.
• EXCLUSIVE: Intel is seeking to increase the amount it’s raising in a share sale to about $20 billion, pricing the offering at around $95 per share. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge

• The Tactic Of AOC And Her Allies To Giggle Away The 'Craziness' Of Woke-Era Abuses Should Not Be Tolerated.
• Last month, China’s vehicle exports reached a record 1m units with nearly 50% being NEVs, while at the same time its domestic sales continue to crater (down -15% y/y from Jan-May).
• Ex-DSA Member Blows Whistle Over "Mob Tactics" Used On Dissenters, Debates Over Levels-of-Leninism.
• *SINGAPORE RAISES 2026 GDP GROWTH EST. TO 4.5%-5.5% FROM 2%-4%.
• Hunter Biden tells laptop lies in fib-filled Tucker Carlson interview.
• NDX positioning is the most bearish since ChatGPT launched.
• The Humanities PhD plagiarism apocalypse is coming. As the Jason Arday case shows, few expect anyone to read their thesis (in his case, even his doctoral advisors clearly didn’t). Somebody soon is going to set AI on the millions of them; some will be read for the first time, and a list of all the plagiarists going back a century will be spat out. It will be a massacre of reputations.    
• Study Finds 93% Of Avocado Oil Chips Contain Other Oils. There Is A Solution ....
• Reported attacks on Libya’s Zawiya refinery.
• JUST IN: Claude models will now have invisible watermarks embedded in ALL text, and ALL metadata attached to files…
• Unitree’s Shanghai IPO 5,526x oversubscribed by retail buyers. Here come China’s robots.
• Wildfires Continue To Rage Across Western US And Canada As Tens Of Thousands Evacuated.
• More texts reveal that Biden era US Surgeon General Vivek Murthy responded to Fauci’s concern about the COVID vaccine in pregnant women by adding “I’ve been hearing concern about the mRNA causing mutations in the developing fetus as well.” None of these concerns were ever made public. They’re both guilty of premeditated mass murder.         
• The New Censorship Isn't Coming From The Left - It's Coming From Everyone.
• Despite privately texting with Fauci about their concerns regarding COVID shots for pregnant women, Rochelle Walensky told the public on April 23, 2021: “Importantly, no safety concerns were observed for people vaccinated in the third trimester or safety concerns for their babies.” (video)  
• FBI Working With DHS, ODNI On Election Integrity: FBI Director. 
• “We need to raise more money as fast as possible”. “We’re going to need to spend trillions and trillion of dollars on compute”. Oh my goodness. We did not even start…government funding is coming too. you’re bearish?? (video)  
• Trump Shares Hillary Clinton Op-Ed Backing His Gaza Plan In Face Of Bibi Rejection.
• BLACKROCK'S FINK: "GOING TO NEED OVER 70 GIGAWATTS OF POWER TO FUEL AI IN THE UNITED STATES".
• Fauci privately warned of miscarriage risk linked to COVID vaccine while publicly claiming no issues, newly released texts show.
• Democrats' Frankenstein Turns: Communist Ghost Dance Now Set To Devour The Party.
• Big-Tech, Bonds, & Bitcoin Dump; Black Gold Jumps As US-Iran Brinksmanship Builds.     

• @CNBC  

• CNBC Daily Open: Markets caught between oil jitters and AI optimism. 
• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.  
• Stock futures are steady as investors weigh Iran, Hormuz deal prospects: Live updates.
• Nvidia is attempting to turn its artificial intelligence chips into Wall Street’s newest asset class.  

• @WallStEngine

• AST SPACEMOBILE. $ASTS Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS.  Revenue: $31.5M (Est. $35M).  EPS: -$0.77 (Est. -$0.28). FY Guide:  Revenue: $150.0M-$200.0M (Est. $169M). 
• $HIMS & HERS Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS Revenue: $753.2M (Est. $700M) ; +38% YoY. GAAP EPS: -$0.37. Adj. EBITDA: $60.3M (Est. $47.2M) ; -27% YoY. Subscribers: 2,891; +19% YoY. FY26 Guide: Revenue: $3.1B-$3.3B (Est. $2.93B). Adjusted EBITDA: $275M-$325M (Est. $296M). Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 9%-10%. 
• ROCKET LAB $RKLB Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS Revenue: $234M (Est. $231M) ; +62% YoY. EPS: -$0.08 (Est. -$0.07). Backlog: $2.36B; +137% YoY. Q3 Guide: Revenue: $250M-$265M (Est. $239M). EBITDA: $17M-$23M loss (Est. -$11.8M). GAAP Gross Margin: 29%-31%. Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 35%-37%. GAAP OpEx: $143M-$149M. Non-GAAP OpEx: $121M-$127M. Interest Income, net: $21M. Shares: 641M. 
• OpenAI is hiring a power-trading lead to manage hedging and procurement across its growing data center portfolio. The role will cover electricity and natural gas exposure, as OpenAI builds out its own capabilities around power sourcing, commodity risk & infrastructure economics. 

• @MerengoFS 

• $CRWV Earnings Preview. 
• $LITE Earnings Preview. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.25 +.5 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 37.25 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 96.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%. 
• Crude Oil 82.37/bbl. +.29% 
• Gold 4,47.50 USD/t oz. +1.2%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.32 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.47 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 126.87 -.13%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.71% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.97% n/a.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.6 -.09%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.02%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.12%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.33%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by transport and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.