Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Trump has agreed to Australia’s request to “consider full exemption or, at the very least, no increase” to the tariffs imposed by the US, Albanese says.  
• A second supertanker appeared moored at Saudi Arabia’s main oil export terminal inside the Persian Gulf, a further sign that loadings at the hub may be picking up. 
• An influx of Middle Eastern crude is making its way to US shores, offering some respite to a market squeezed by wartime demand for American exports. 
• President Trump ordered the Navy to return to using steam catapults to launch planes off of aircraft carriers, acting on a longtime complaint despite opposition from many naval officers. 
• Tyson Foods said it would close several additional beef plants, in the latest sign of the US beefpacking industry’s restructuring amid a prolonged US cattle shortage.  
• The Trump administration referred over 200 hospitals and clinics for investigations into what it says are possible violations of federal statutes related to pediatric gender-affirming care.
• The top 100% rate will apply to drones of a certain size or those that posses national-security capabilities, according to a White House statement. 
• US mortgage rates fell slightly for the first time since in six weeks, after fresh data revealed that the labor market is cooling and the Iran war may have had a more muted impact on inflation last month. 
• The AI firms want customers to rethink the price of using their models. 
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 

• @ZeroHedge

• US Sending Fresh Carrier To Relieve Over-Extended USS Lincoln Amid Reports Of Sailor Burn-Out. 
• Bessent says US ‘to apply measures’ on Iran that ‘have never been seen in history’. 
• Nanya Technology Plans New Taiwan DRAM Plants: EDN. 
• US Creates New 'Multinational' Attack Drone Task Force Amid Iran War & Lessons Learned In Ukraine. 
• State Department Launches Birth Tourism Prevention Task Force.
• The "Big Tent" Dilemma: Marxist Hasan Piker Pleads With Democrats For Help, But Will They Answer.
• Outrage As Texas Schools Bus Kids To Mosque So They Can "Experience Islam".
• Violent Crime Rate Drops In Major US Cities.
• News Groups Sue Trump Over Paid Early Access To Truth Social Posts.
• *VANCE ON IRAN: ENDS WITH IRAN HAVING NO NUCLEAR WEAPON. *VANCE ON IRAN: ALSO ENDS WITH HORMUZ BACK TO STABLE OIL PRICES. *VANCE: GOAL ONE IS TO KEEP OIL AND GASOLINE CHEAP FOR US.
• Lots of explosions in Europe today.
• Workday Soars Most On Record As Silver Lake Weighs $43 Billion Buyout. 
• Citadel Imposes Two-Year Non-Competes Even on Some Analysts: BBG.
• Disinflation, Deal-Doubts, & Doubling-Down: Bond Yields Drop, Oil Slop, Tech Pops.        

• @CNBC  

• CNBC Daily Open: An 'indefinite' war, and a record-breaking rally. 
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.    
• Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 sets record above 7,800, heads for winning week: Live updates. 
• Uber partners with China's Pony.ai for 2,000 robotaxis in Europe. 
• Reddit shares jump 11% on inclusion in S&P 500. 
• These charts show why stocks keep rallying. Profit margins are the highest on record. 

• @WallStEngine

• Ramp’s July AI Index: Anthropic was used by 43.5% of U.S. businesses, up 1.1pp MoM. OpenAI: 39.7%, +0.23pp. xAI: 4.0%, +0.94pp. Anthropic’s Fable 5 accounted for just 6% of tokens purchased and 11.4% of spend. GPT-5.6 Sol accounted for 25% of OpenAI tokens and 23% of spend.  
• WHITE HOUSE TO HOST CRYPTO, PREDICTION MARKET EXECUTIVES NEXT WEEK: POLITICO.
• APPLIED MATERIALS $AMAT Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $9.12B (Est. $8.99B) ; +25% YoY. Adj. EPS: $3.50 (Est. $3.39) ; +41% YoY. Non-GAAP Oper Income: $3.10B (Est. $3.03B). Non-GAAP FCF: $2.33B (Est. $1.52B) ; +14% YoY. Q4 Guide: Revenue: $10.25B +/- $500M (Est. $9.54B). Adj. EPS: $4.02 +/- $0.20 (Est. $3.69).  

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.25 -.5 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 36.5 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 96.50 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%. 
• Crude Oil 81.10/bbl. -.2% 
• Gold 4,375.30 USD/t oz. -1.0%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.29 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.41 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 128.6 +.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.65% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.02% -1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.1 -.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.34%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.05%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.