Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.1 -.8%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.6 -.5%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .29 -1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.16 +4.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.0 -.3%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 140.9 -.2%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 55.4 -3.9%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 -.2
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 91.1 +.3
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.60 -1.3
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 68.7 +.3
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.1 +.5
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(451 of 500 reporting) +50.8% +.2 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 388.59 +.11: Growth Rate +32.1% unch., P/E 19.9 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.24% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +138.4% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 944.76 +.34: Growth Rate +82.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.6 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.29 -4.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 48.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 180.6 -.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 60.5 euros/megawatt-hour +3.0%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.7% +.9 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +5.8% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.68% -1.0 basis point
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.68 -7.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 45.3% (+7.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 45.1%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,020 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +9 open in China
- KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +36 open in South Korea
- DAX Futures: Indicating +100 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my energy/financial/tech/biotech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% net long
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