Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Iran’s military said it reached a revenue-sharing agreement with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz. 
• Trump is pushing a legislative package to revive the domestic maritime industry as military operations in the Middle East highlight the vulnerability of international shipping.
• Trump signed an order easing tariffs on some ground beef imports, an effort to lower costs for consumers that has managed to rile ranchers and rural state Republicans before the November midterm elections.   
• Amazon will add an additional 2 million Nvidia graphics processing units to its data center fleet in the next two years. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge

• US Officials Reveal Reason For CIA Chief’s Surprise Moscow Visit. 
• Hormuz And The Law Of Diminishing Returns: When Leverage Burns. 
• Waste Of The Day: Deficit Could Surpass $2 Trillion. 
• *NVIDIA IN TALKS TO BUY HUGGING FACE FOR OVER $13B: INSIDER.
• *BANK OF KOREA RAISES POLICY RATE TO 3.00% FROM 2.75%.
• How Many $2,500 Foldable iPhones Will Apple Ship In Year One? IDC Has The Answer.            
• Activist Obama Judge Bends The Knee, Lifts Block On Trump's Mail-In Ballot Restrictions After USSC Ruling.
• Another Major Russian Refinery Up In Flames As Diesel Nears Historic Highs.
• Israel Developing Offensive Space Capabilities.
• Chinese Hackers Broke Into NASA, Federal Reserve, DOJ & Senate: FBI Announces.
• Don't Trust The Midterm Polls.
• TRUMP SIGNS ORDER TO BAN SOME FOREIGN ENERGY EQUIPMENT IN GRID. 
• US Universities Had Extensive Ties With Chinese Defense Research Labs, Air Force Study Finds. 
• 'Waiting For Jensen': Low Energy Day Sees Stocks, Bonds, & Gold Dip After Hot-flation & Russian Escalation.        

• @CNBC  

• CNBC Daily Open: Nvidia is selling more shovels than ever in the AI gold rush. 
• China industrial profit growth in July slumps to 7-month low of 11.2%. 
• Nvidia's 70% sales growth projection for 2028 wows analysts on earnings call.  
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff says the ‘SaaSpocalypse’ is nonsense. Here's why.
• Stock futures rise as Nvidia shares jump 4% after earnings: Live updates.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Nvidia, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Urban Outfitters and more.
• CrowdStrike pops 11% on record second quarter as 'Mythos moment' drives AI cyber wave.     
• Okta pops 15% after topping estimates as AI threat spikes demand for identity security. 

• @WallStEngine

• Nvidia $NVDA CEO on open vs. frontier AI models: “Nearly all open models run on Nvidia.” Jensen says open models have become foundational to nearly every AI startup and enterprise, allowing companies and countries to build their own proprietary, domain-specific AI. At the same time, frontier labs are seeing sales “skyrocketing,” “fantastic” margins and are generating profitable tokens, with growth primarily limited by available compute. Nvidia is “fairly certain” it is the only platform that runs every frontier model: “Both closed and open models are going to succeed. They’re both simultaneously driving our sales.”.  
• Nvidia $NVDA CEO on its ~70% FY28 growth outlook: “The unconstrained would be a lot higher.” Nvidia has secured significant supply but still needs “a lot more” capacity to meet demand. 
• $NVDA CFO on memory, supply and margins: “We are experiencing extreme pricing conditions in memory. The magnitude of the price increase has exceeded our prior expectations and is headed even higher into next year.” Nvidia expects supply to remain a bottleneck through at least the end of FY28. Gross margins: Q3: 74% ±50 bps. Q4: bottom at 71%-72%. FY28: settle around 72%-73% (Est. 74%). “As executed price increases take effect in Q1.” “Memory scarcity today is being driven in large part by the AI buildout itself... tighter memory supply is a symptom of the same demand surge that’s driving our own growth.” 
• $NVDA CFO ON NEOCLOUDS: Neocloud partners are expected to exit the year with 8 GW of installed capacity, up from roughly 3 GW at the end of 2025. Nvidia is also introducing a new financing structure where it provides take-or-pay commitments on a portion of capacity, helping lenders underwrite projects without Nvidia making loans. In return, Nvidia gets paid twice: once on the hardware sale, and again through a share of rental revenue above the guaranteed floor. Nvidia says this model could create billions in additional recurring revenue over the medium to long term. 
• $NVDA CFO: VERA CPU IS NOW IN FULL PRODUCTION, WITH SHIPMENTS ALREADY UNDERWAY TO LEAD PARTNERS. SEES APPROXIMATELY $20B IN TOTAL SERVER CPU DEMAND AND EXPECTS CPU REVENUE TO MORE THAN DOUBLE IN FY28. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 unch. 
• China Sovereign CDS 35.0 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 98.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%. 
• Crude Oil 81.60/bbl. -.8% 
• Gold 4,696.70 USD/t oz. +.94%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.35 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.41 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 126.6 -.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.65% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.07% -1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.1 -.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.26%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.45%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.83%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.