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Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Links of Interest
Wednesday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
-
- Pakistan will ensure elections on Jan. 8 are free and transparent, President Pervez Musharraf said, as the government released opposition supporters and journalists held under emergency regulations imposed almost three weeks ago.
- Copper Arch Capital LLC, the hedge-fund firm run by former Morgan Stanley managing director Scott Sipprelle, is liquidating and returning money to clients after returns trailed peers this year.
Wall Street Journal:
- US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, concerned that millions of homeowners aren’t being helped quickly enough, is pressing the mortgage-service industry to help broad swaths of borrowers qualify for better loans instead of dealing with mortgage problems on a case-by-case basis.
- Scientists have created human embryonic stem cells from mature cells in a breakthrough that avoids destroying human embryos. The technique could lead to new treatments for disease without the ethical questions involved in cloning.
BusinessWeek:
- Life Sciences Stocks: A Healthy Outlook. S&P likes the fundamentals of one of the stronger-performing subindustries this year, and has buy ratings on seven names.
- Sales picture is bright for digital cameras; ’07 may see 16% rise.
- One more thing cellphones could do: Replace wallets.
- Oil’s record has analysts puzzled. The price of oil again set a record Tuesday, easily blowing through the previous high earlier this month, in a move some analysts said was absurd because there was no solid, supply-and-demand reason for it.
Reuters:
- GM’s November sales meeting expectations: Lutz.
Financial Times:
- US reports ‘phenomenal’ drop in Iraq violence. The figures show the number of suicide attacks, roadside bombings, mortar and other attacks on US forces and on the Iraqi population have plunged 50% since the 30,000 extra troops in June.
- BlackRock(BLK), the asset manager 49% owned by Merrill Lynch(MER), is set to be signed up as the manager of the $75 billion superfund being put together by the top three US banks.
- The failure rate of hedge funds is expected to double this year, citing an interview with Man Group Plc CEO Peter Clarke. As many as one in 10 funds will go out of business, and the number of funds introduced will drop by about a third, Clarke said.
London-based Times:
- Starbucks Corp.(SBUX) plans to open at least 100 new coffee shops in the
Australian Financial Review:
- Publishing & Broadcasting Ltd.,
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (EBAY), target $49.
- Reiterated Buy on (SKS), target $25.
- Reiterated Buy on (ROST), target $38.
- Removed Comcast(CMCSK) from Recommended List, added NYMEX Holdings(NMX).
- October appears to have been a very strong month for Google(GOOG). Google “core” queries were up 15% M/M and 50% Y/Y. Google’s share increased 150 bps M/M to 58.5%, a new record. Yahoo! Queries were up 8% M/M but were flat on a Y/Y basis. Its search share dropped 80 bps M/M to 22.9%, which is the lowest we have tracked. MSFT share dropped to 9.7%, down 60 bps M/M and the lowest we have seen since the June ’07 launch of Club Live. Queries were up 5.5% M/M and 11% Y/Y.
- Reiterated Buy on (CVS), raised EPS estimates, raised target to $50.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -2.25% to -.25% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.66%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.56%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (CHRS)/-.03
- (DE)/1.54
- (PDCO)/.40
- (PLCE)/.38
- (BKE)/.74
- (GPS)/.29
- (ANF)/1.28
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Initial Jobless Claims for this week are estimated to fall to 330K versus 339K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2575K versus 2568K prior.
10:00 am EST
- The
- Leading Indicators for October are estimated to fall .3% versus a .3% increase in September.
10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil build of 750,000 barrels versus a 2,814,000 barrel increase the prior week. Gasoline supplies are expected to rise by 950,000 barrels versus a 714K barrel build the prior week. Distillate Supplies are estimated to fall by -450,000 barrels versus a -1,965,000 barrel decline the prior week. Refinery Utilization is expected to rise by .5% versus a 1.43% increase the prior week. Finally, Natural Gas supplies are expected to rise by 3 bcf versus a -9 bcf decline the prior week.
Other Potential Market Movers
- The weekly EIA energy inventory report and weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Report could also impact trading today.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Stocks Finish Mostly Higher on Late Rebound
Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Rise in Oil, Financial Sector Worries
Links of Interest
Market Snapshot Commentary
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories
IBD Breaking News
Movers & Shakers
Upgrades/Downgrades
In Play
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Intraday Chart/Quote
Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes
Monday, November 19, 2007
Tuesday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The global burden of HIV has been overstated, with new surveillance data showing the number of people carrying the AIDS-causing virus is about 6.3 million lower than estimated last year. More accurate ways of tracking the disease indicate for the first time that the world turned the corner on the three-decade epidemic in the late 1990s.
- London Metal Exchange director Philip Crowson stated on Monday that
- Leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations will today agree to “abide by and implement” changes to their markets allowing the region to be a European Union-modeled economic community by 2015.
-
IBD:
- Hard Drive Makers Resist Price War.
- Why give thanks when you can shop?
AP:
- General Motors’(GM) Cadillac CTS was named 2008 car of the year in the
Financial Times:
- The US Federal Reserve will on Tuesday publish its first set of enhanced economic forecasts alongside the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, and the result may surprise some investors. The new economic projections are likely to show that Fed policymakers expect the US economy will pull through an expected near-term rough patch and regain strength over the course of 2008, even though they see downside risks to that forecast.
- Arab investors, flush with liquidity, are considering investments in distressed US financial assets as they try to turn the turmoil in credit markets into a regional opportunity.
Daily Telegraph:
- Rio Tinto(RTP), defending a takeover proposal from BHP Billiton(BHP), may offer its larger rival partnerships in some projects instead of a merger.
Economic Daily News:
- AU Optronics(AUO) will supply panels that will be sued in Dell’s(DELL) new touch-screen laptops.
Jiji Press:
- Tomy Co. and other Japanese toymakers are shifting production to
- BYD Co. plans to export its own-brand electric cars to the
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (TGT), target $66. TGT’s November sales are tracking in-line with the company’s original guidance. We believe the arrival of more favorable weather in November has helped to drive sales of seasonal and cold weather items during the month.
- Reiterated Buy on (HOLX), target $74.
- Reiterated Buy on (MSFT), target $41.
- Reiterated Buy on (JWN), target $52.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -3.0% to -.75% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.37%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.65%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (UNFI)/.32
- (BKS)/-.09
- (DHI)/-.85
- (DKS)/.05
- (TGT)/.62
- (GME)/.23
- (FRE)/.00
- (EV)/.49
- (ROST)/.35
- (SKS)/.16
- (ZLC)/-.60
- (SSI)/.05
- (BJ)/.33
- (DDS)/-.19
- (HRL)/.65
- (BGP)/-.62
- (LTD)/.00
- (ARUN)/.03
- (HIBB)/.24
- (WFMI)/.30
- (PSUN)/.14
- (GYMB)/.90
- (ODP)/.40
- (HOTT)/.15
- (MWRK)/-.59
- (PLL)/.57
- (JCG)/.36
- (FL)/.24
- (BCSI)/.24
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Housing Starts for October are estimated to fall to 1170K versus 1191K in September.
- Building Permits for October are estimated to fall to 1200K versus 1261K in September.
2:00 pm EST
- Oct. 31 FOMC Meeting Minutes
Other Potential Market Movers
- The weekly retail sales reports, (IART) analyst meeting, Bank of America Defense Day and Scotia Capital Telecom & Tech Conference could also impact trading today.