Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• China Is Making It Harder to Solve the Mystery of How Covid Began.
• The U.K.’s Brexit Deal Clears Parliament With Only Hours to Spare.
• Australia Battles Covid-19 Clusters in Both Sydney and Melbourne.
• Singapore Finds Two People From U.K. May Have New Virus Strain.  
• Dollar at 2 1/2 Year Low; U.S. Futures Edge Up: Markets Wrap.
• New Strain Spreads in U.S.; Japan Braces for Spike: Virus Update.
• N.Y. Reports Record Daily Virus Cases as Cuomo Looks to 2021.
• Gold Heads for Best Year in a Decade With Dollar on the Ropes.  
• Take a Last Glimpse at a Nightmare Year for the World Economy.  
• Some of 2020’s Most Expensive Stocks Sink in Year-End Selloff.  
• Exxon Signals Historic Fourth Consecutive Loss on Demand Hit.

Wall Street Journal:

• Banks Pile Into Government Debt, Setting Up ‘Doom Loop’ Sequel in Europe.
• AstraZeneca and Oxford’s Bumpy Partnership Hangs Over Vaccine’s Future.
• How I Became a ‘Far-Right Radical’.
• Xi’s China Crafts Campaign to Boost Youth Patriotism.
• Record IPO Surge Set to Roll On.
• Global Digital-Tax Detente Ends, as U.S. and France Exchange Blows.

Fox News:    

• Rep.-elect Luke Letlow died from heart attack after procedure related to coronavirus.
  

CNBC.com:

• Colorado health officials are investigating a second suspected case of new Covid strain.
• CDC says new Covid strain in U.S. could further stress ‘already heavily burdened’ hospitals.
• Stimulus package boosts food stamps by 15%. A family of four could get $782 a month.

MarketWatch.com:  

• No ‘realistic path’ for vote by Senate on bigger stimulus checks, McConnell says.

Zero Hedge:

• Biden's Brave New (Woke) World.
• Swiss Patient Dies Shortly After Receiving Pfizer COVID Vaccine.
• Boston Dynamics Robots Learn How To Dance In Creepy New Video.
• As Anti-Cop Protests Continue, Americans Are Murdering Each Other In Record Numbers.
• Los Angeles Seeks $3.9 Billion Bailout Despite Paying Its "Tree Surgeons" Up To $207,000.
• Viral Video Shows NYC Bike Thugs Attacking BMW In Manhattan.
• The World Is Awash In Negative-Yielding Debt.
• 2020 In 12 Stunning Charts.
• ARK's Innovation ETF Posts $137 Million Outflow On Tuesday, Its Largest On Record.
• Dollar Dumps, Bitcoin Jumps, & Stock Short-Interest Slumps.

Newsmax:

• Poll: 67 Percent of Republicans Believe Voter Fraud Boosted Biden to Win.
• Georgia’s Runoffs Will Likely Drag Out Results for Days.
  

@kylenabecker:

• "The COVID-driven centralization of economic power and information control in the hands of a few corporate monopolies poses enduring threats to political freedom." Chillingly accurate from @ggreenwald:

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Press Conference at AZ State Capitol – Citizen Investigation Uncovers Thousands of Illegal Votes in Arizona at 6 PM — LIVE-STREAM RSBN VIDEO.
• Arizona Attorney General Joins in Battle For Forensic Audit of Maricopa County Elections Equipment and Ballot Images.
• ‘Senate is Not Going to be Bullied’ – After Sending Billions to Foreign Countries, McConnell Digs in Against Giving Americans $2,000 (VIDEO).
• Georgia Senate Judiciary Subcommittee Unanimously Passes Motion to Audit Fulton County’s Absentee Ballots Using Method Outlined by Jovan Pulitzer. 
• BREAKING: Jovan Pulitzer Reveals Live, Real-Time Hacking of Dominion Voting Systems at Fulton County Polling Station (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Texas Wind Farm Project Poses National Security Threat, Experts Say.
• Shenyang City in Northeastern China Becomes CCP Virus Hotspot.

Geller Report: 

• LOOK Who Owns Dominion Voting Systems: Politically Motivated PRIVATE Equity NY Hedge Fund.

The Atlantic:

• The End of the Filibuster—No, Really. Many activists will not tolerate a Democratic-controlled Senate that allows Republicans to block legislation next year.

Politico:

• AOC Lays Out Progressive Wish List for Biden.

Glenn Beck:

• Elizabeth Warren’s ‘progressive wish list’ will destroy America. (video)

Daily Caller:

• Trump Urges Supporters Not To Boycott Georgia Senate Elections. President Donald Trump urged his supporters not to boycott the upcoming runoff Senate elections in Georgia on Friday, saying a boycott would be “playing right into the hands” of Democrats.
  

NTD News:

• "A lot of people, friends of mine, say, let's not vote... But if you do that, the radical left wins. ... You're angry because so many votes were stolen, it was taken away...If you don't vote, the socialists and the communists win"—Trump rallies for Perdue and Loeffler. (video) 

ProtectTheVote.com: 

• Serious allegations of misconduct in the 2020 elections have resulted in unprecedented legal action to ensure our elections are -- and remain -- free and fair. Find out where we’re exposing fraud and how you can help.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 56.75 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 27.50 -.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 63.01 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,450.0 +5.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.65 -.11%
• FTSE 100 futures -.71%.

• S&P 500 futures +.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 833K versus 803K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 5390K versus 5337K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The South Korean trade data report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Year-End Window Dressing, Short-Covering, Oil Gain, Commodity/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.0 -.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,455.0 +57.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.22 -.02%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 +1.2%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.8 -1.2%

• ISE Sentiment Index 131.0 +31.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .75 -2.6%

• NYSE Arms .82 -25.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.15 -1.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 560.11 +.11%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.83 +1.16%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 111.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.0 -1.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 152.49 -1.36%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 184.27 +.09%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.5 -.75 basis point

• TED Spread 15.5 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +9.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.25 -.25 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 +.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.98 +.21%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 80.75 -1.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 157.20 USD/Metric Tonne +2.36%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.80 +4.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 190.50 -.5 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 70.4 +1.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.96 unch.
• 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +31 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +43 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -67 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Telecom -.6% 2) Internet -.1% 3) Software -.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HZO, ORCC, OPEN, BGS, CGBD, RARE, IEA, PTGX, IMMR, BEAM and FUBO
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EPR 2) CLF 3) AKAM 4) XLP 5) IVR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TRIT 2) FUBO 3) PFE 4) QIWI 5) SPLK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +3.4% 2) Gold & Silver +2.5% 3) Video Gaming +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BTBT, ACMR, DMTK, BYSI, RIOT, BLNK, ATOM, MSTR, FCX, BCOR, MSGE, MP and SI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TJX 2) XLP 3) AMBC 4) TIF 5) HZNP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BCDA 2) IPDN 3) NETE 4) CDAK 5) STMH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -29.8% Below 100-Day Average
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 73.2% of Issues Advancing, 24.3% Declining
• 81 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
• 84.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,472.0 +72.0 points
• Vix 22.8 -1.2%
• Total Put/Call .77 unch.
• TRIN/Arms .62 -43.6%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.0 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 28.0 -1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.90 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,401.0 +3.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.60 -.10%
• FTSE 100 futures -.48%.

• S&P 500 futures +.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Advance Goods Trade Balance for Nov. is estimated at -$81.5B versus -$80.3B in Oct.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.1% gain in Oct.
  

9:45 am EST

• MNI Chicago PMI for Dec. is estimated to fall to 56.0 versus a reading of 58.2 in Nov.

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for Nov. is estimated unch. versus a -1.1% decline in Oct.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,449,670 barrels versus a -562,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise +212,780 barrels versus a -1,125,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -402,890 barrels versus a -2,325,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.38% versus a -1.1% decline prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The South Korean inflation report and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.