Tuesday, June 01, 2021

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:          
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch.com:         
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times: 
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.75 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 37.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.44 -.12%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,468.0 -2.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.2 -1.0%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.01%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (AAP)/3.08
  • (CCL)/-1.61
  • (DCI)/.58
After the Close:
  • (AI)/-.27
  • (JEF)/.95
  • (NTAP)/1.12
  • (PVH)/.83
  • (SMTC)/.52
  • (SPTN)/.54
  • (SPLK)-.70
Economic Releases
2:00 pm EST
  • US Fed Beige Book release.
Afternoon:
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for May is estimated to fall to 17.4M versus 18.51M in April.
Upcoming Splits
  • (NEOG) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Australia GDP report, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Stifel Jaws/Paws Conference, RBC Consumer/Retail Conference, Wells Fargo Energy Conerence, Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, Credit Suisse Chemicals/Ag/Packaging/Cement Conference and the (TOL) analyst/investor day could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Dovish Fed Commentary, Oil Gain, Commodity/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.2 +8.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,446.0 -43.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.27 -.13%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.1 -.9%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.9 +2.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 118.0  +7.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .63 -12.5%
  • NYSE Arms .55 -65.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.70 -1.3%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 428.48 -1.6%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.40 -1.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 108.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.08 +.45%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 158.05 -1.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.29 -.15%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 12.5 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  63.5 +1.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.0 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.53 +.08%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 147.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 198.80 USD/Metric Tonne +6.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.8 +4.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 156.40 +1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 59.90 +5.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.47 +2.0 basis points
  • 93.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 93.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +21 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +65 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +33 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my technology/commodity/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Medical Equipment -1.9% 2) Pharma -1.5% 3) Healthcare -.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • GPS, LH, KIRK, DHR, TMO, EAT, MHK, IVZ, BYND, QDEL, RRGB, ABT, MUDS and IMVT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) CLDR 2) WPG 3) VTNR 4) ABT 5) MJ
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ABT 2) RENN 3) NWSA 4) FFIV 5) DNMR
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +1.5%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +4.3% 2) Steel +3.6% 3) Energy +3.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CLDR, AMC, TEN, LE, DVN, MRO, LPI, SM, CAL, CPE, EPR, APA, OVV, RRC, SRG, OXY, FANG, NUE, CNK, SCHN, CALM, MGY, AR, CCRN, FOCS, ABNB, CRC, AMR, INT, COF and BCEI
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) AYRO 2) CLDR 3) WPG 4) HWM 5) ABT
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) DVN 2) NIO 3) RBLX 4) PWR 5) BA

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running +11.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
  • 68.0% of Issues Advancing, 27.9% Declining
  • 341 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
  • 88.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 52.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,465.0 -13.0 points
  • Vix 18.0 +7.5%
  • Total Put/Call .61 -15.3%
  • TRIN/Arms .63 -60.1%

Monday, May 31, 2021

Tuesday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:                
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC:  
Zero Hedge: 
MarketWatch.com:
NewsMax:   
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.0 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 37.0 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.50 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,467.0 -22.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.9 +.24%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.23%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (MIK)/.32
After the Close:
  • (AMBA)/.17
  • (HPE)/.42
  • (ZM)/.98
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending MoM for April is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.2% gain in March.
  • ISM Manufacturing for May is estimated to rise to 60.9 versus 60.7 in April. 
  • ISM Prices Paid for May is estimated to fall to 89.3 versus 89.6 in April.
10:30 am EST
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for May is estimated to fall to 36.5 versus 37.3 in April.
Upcoming Splits
  • (NEOG) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Manufacturing PMI report, Eurozone PMI report, RBA minutes, Deutsche Bank Financial Services Conference, Jefferies Healthcare Conference, William Blair Growth Stock Conference, Cowen Tech/Media/Telecom Conference and the KeyBanc Industrials/Basic Materials Conference could also impact trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and healthcare shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.