Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -3.4% 2) Banks -2.1% 3) Energy -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• RDW, SF, CHRW, ARCH, OMF, SNAP, APAM, TDS, GM, TXN, IP, AAN, V, ALLY, FOUR, DASH, MA, FTCV, NYCB, XPDI, MHO, COF, FBC, HA, DT, CSGP, TWTR, HOOD, SIX, WE, LBRT, FISV and CRTX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IVR 2) BKLN 3) GNUS 4) LC 5) FISV
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CRTX 2) LBRT 3) HOOD 4) TWTR 5) NYCB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

 Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Software +1.8% 2) Alt Energy +1.5% 3) Restaurants +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ENPH, NRIX, SLAB, RANI, IONQ, AHT, CARA, CHEF, IRNT, TMHC, HOG, NVAX, STEM, NOVA, METC, SHLS, MAS, SPWR, FFIV, XLNX, JNPR, BKKT, GOOG, TER, TREX, GRTS, MQ, MSFT, SWTX, RUN, SRG, CERE, TDY, HZO, RYTM, BG, TSLA and CALX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PRTY 2) NCR 3) ENPH 4) PHM 5) GOOG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ENPH 2) FFIV 3) DLA 4) XLNX 5) SPOT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +3.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 33.0% of Issues Advancing, 62.1% Declining
• 67 New 52-Week Highs, 34 New Lows
• 61.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,435.0 -198.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,951 +1.4%
  
• Vix 16.0 +.3%
• Total Put/Call .70 -16.7%
• TRIN/Arms 1.4 +4.6%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:      

• China’s Regional Hinterland Suffers as Beijing Reins In Debt.
• Xi’s Toughest ‘Common Prosperity’ Test Is Raising China’s Taxes.
• Failure of Trickle-Down Abenomics Is Top Issue for Japan Voters.  
• BOJ to Stand Pat, Flag Recovery Delay Before Vote: Day Guide.  
• Asian Stocks Steady as Traders Weigh Earnings: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Holds Gains After Industry Data Shows Cushing Supply Decline.
• Aramco Warns World’s Spare Oil Supplies Are Falling Rapidly.
• Democrats Unveil a Corporate Minimum Tax, Eyeing $400 Billion.  
• Progressives Rebuff Pelosi on Plans for Infrastructure Vote.  
• Democrats Near Deal on $500 Billion to Fight Climate Change.  
• Pricey Lumber Is Back Boosted by Supply Cuts, Labor Shortage.

Wall Street Journal:

• 3-D Printed Houses Are Sprouting Near Austin.

Fox News:    

• Radical Biden plan takes 'gender equity' hammer to criminal justice system as violent crime engulfs US.
  

CNBC.com:

• Top Democrats aim to strike a deal on Biden’s social spending plan within hours.
• Food companies could see $3 billion in monthly sales vanish, as low-income households get squeezed.

MarketWatch.com:            

• AMD CEO feeling ‘very, very good’ about data-center market as sales hit a record.
• Visa tops earnings expectations, boosts dividend.
  

Zero Hedge:  

• NIH Director Shredded Over Risky Research In Wuhan After CNN Interview Goes Sideways.
• Pediatric COVID Hospitalizations Plunge As Schools Reopen, Baffling Experts.
• Green Energy: A Bubble In Unrealistic Expectations.
• Texas Governor Signs Bill Requiring Student Athletes Play On Teams Matching Birth Sex.
• China Braces For Another Major COVID Flareup By Forcing Jabs On Children As Young As 3.
• Biden's "Come On, Man" Defense Will Not Fly On Religious Freedom.
• "Unexpected" Collapse Of Chinese Property Developer Pushes China's 2021 Default Total To Record High.
• OPEC+ Comfortable With Rising Oil Price Trend.
• NYPD's Largest Police Union Sues Mayor Over COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate.
• 'World's Worst Offenders' Putin & Xi Skip Climate Summit Dubbed "Humanity's Last Chance".
• Failure To Bury "Transitory" Inflation Narrative Risks Sparking Biggest Fed Error In Decades: El-Erian Warns.
• Senate Dems Unveil New Corporate Minimum Tax; Sinema On Board.
• Robinhood Plunges After Huge Revenue Miss, Terrible Guidance.
• WTI Dips After Unexpected Crude Inventory Build.
• Opposition To Powell's Renomination Crosses The Aisle As Sen. Rick Scott Joins Warren In Opposition.
• Alphabet Drops Despite Beating On Revenue And Earnings As Cloud Disappoints.
• MSFT Shares Surge After Cloud-Driven Top- And Bottom-Line Beats.
• Long-Bond, Big-Techs, & Black-Gold Bid As China Stocks Chunder.

Newsmax:

• Senate Dems Propose Corporate Minimum Tax to Reach 200 Companies.
• Rep. Buddy Carter: Passing of Spending Bill 'Throwing Gas on' Inflation Fire.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• FDA Panel Approves Pfizer Covid Vax For Kids Ages 5-11, Concedes it Doesn’t Know Long-Term Risks to Children (VIDEO).
• It Wasn’t Just Beagles and Monkeys – Fauci’s NIH Also Funded Medical Experiments on AIDS Orphans in NY City.
• Biden Regime Rolls Out Vaccine Requirements for International Travelers to Enter US — But Illegal Aliens Can Come and Go at Will.
• Biden Effect: Thanksgiving 2021 to be the Most Expensive Meal in History of the Holiday.
• “Loudoun County Protects Rapists!” – LCPS Students Walk Out to Show Support For Recent Sexual Assault Victims (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Regime Using US Tech to Create Weapons, House Republicans Warn.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 81.75 -1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 45.5 -1.0 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.46 +.03%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,597.0 -39.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.90 -.13%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.01%.

• S&P 500 futures +.08%

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ADP)/1.49
• (BA)/-.14
• (BSX)/.40
• (BMY)/1.92
• (BG)/1.42
• (CME)/1.56
• (KO)/.58
• (GD)/2.99
• (GM)/.98
• (HOG)/.76
• (HES)/.28
• (HLT)/.84
• (IP)/1.44
• (KHC)/.58
• (MCD)/2.47
• (NSC)/2.92
• (ODFL)/2.38
• (OC)/2.45
• (PAG)/3.65
• (R)/2.09
• (TDY)/3.69

After the Close:

• (AFL)/1.32
• (ALGN)/2.59
• (AVB)/2.01
• (BOOT)/.91
• (CNMD)/.75
• (EBAY)/.88
• (F)/.27
• (FWRD)/1.08
• (IRBT)/.70
• (KLAC)/4.50
• (MYRG)/1.18
• )OII)/.05
• (ORLY)/7.16
• (PPC)/.75
• (RJF)/1.71
• (NOW)/1.39
• (TDOC)/-.62
• (URI)/6.81
• (WH)/.91
• (XLNX)/.90
• (YUMC)/.28
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Advance Goods Trade Deficit for Sept. is estimated at -$88.3B versus -$87.6B in Aug.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.2% gain in Aug.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Sept. are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in Aug.
• Durable Goods Orders for Sept. is estimated to fall -1.1% versus a +1.8% gain in Aug.
• Durables Ex Transports for Sept. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in Aug.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for Sept. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.6% gain in Aug.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,526,440 barrels versus a -431,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -2,031,630 barrels versus a -5,368,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -2,112,880 barrels versus a -3,913,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.43% versus a -2.0% decline prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The GFK Consumer Confidence report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, NRF Holiday Sales Forecast, $61B 5Y T-Note auction and the (DDOG) virtual investor meeting could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Optimism, Technical Buying, Healthcare/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.9 +4.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,651.0 +1.0 point

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.51 +.27%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.16 -.43%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.0 +6.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 106.0  -34.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .83 +16.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.33 +18.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.90 -1.29%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 348.86 -.25%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.52 -1.80%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 111.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 81.86 -1.71%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 179.14 -1.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 34.13 -.42%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.5 unch.
  

• TED Spread 8.0 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.75 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  67.0 -1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.46 +.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 120.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 121.55 USD/Metric Tonne +2.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -27.4 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -68.1 unch.
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.8 unch.

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.69 unch.
• 95.6% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting, 90.9% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 155 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -0/100K people
• 29% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) unch.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -46 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -53 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my medical/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  100% Net Long
  

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -5.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 47.0% of Issues Advancing, 49.0% Declining
• 154 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
• 60.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,612.0 -37.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,731 +.29%
  
• Vix 16.0 +4.7%
• Total Put/Call .78 +9.9%
• TRIN/Arms 1.3 +14.3%