Tuesday, October 26, 2021

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Optimism, Technical Buying, Healthcare/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.9 +4.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,651.0 +1.0 point
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.51 +.27%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.16 -.43%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.0 +6.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 106.0  -34.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .83 +16.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.33 +18.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.90 -1.29%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 348.86 -.25%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.52 -1.80%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 111.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 81.86 -1.71%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 179.14 -1.2%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 34.13 -.42%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 17.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 8.0 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.75 -1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  67.0 -1.5 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.46 +.04%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
  • Yield Curve 120.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 121.55 USD/Metric Tonne +2.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -27.4 unch.
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -68.1 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.8 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.69 unch.
  • 95.6% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting, 90.9% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 155 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -0/100K people
  • 29% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -46 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -53 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure:  100% Net Long

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