Tuesday, October 19, 2021

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Declining China Debt Bubble-Bursting Angst, Short-Covering, Tech/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.6 -4.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,598.0 +166.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.29 +.25%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.87 +.45%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.5 -4.8%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 130.0  +12.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .74 -7.5%
  • NYSE Arms .76 -30.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.44 -1.3%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 351.09 -1.3%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.58 -1.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 105.0 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.15 -1.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 177.74 -2.2%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 34.92 -.4%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 16.25 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 8.25 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.75 +1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  67.25 -.75 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.68 +.19%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  • Yield Curve 117.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 123.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -38.5 -6.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -73.8 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.4 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.55 +1.0 basis point
  • 99.5% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting, 94.5% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 177 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -0/100K people
  • 33% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +165 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +27 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -33 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/commodity/industrial/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure:  100% Net Long

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