Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Less Dovish Fed Commentary, Policy-Induced Labor/Product Shortages, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.6 +3.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,601.0 +61.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.18 -.41%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.11 +1.2%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.8 +3.6%

• ISE Sentiment Index 84.0  -35.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .81 +9.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.21 -13.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.69 +.84%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 348.04 -.09%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.88 +.45%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 110.0 +6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.55 -.69%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 184.82 +2.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 34.55 +.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.25 +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 7.25 -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.5 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  70.5 +2.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.23 -.10%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 123.0 -4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 119.95 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -32.6 +1.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -68.5 +4.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.7 unch.

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.64 -2.0 basis points
• 97.8% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting, 90.6% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 161 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -2/100K people
• 30% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -14 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -27 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my medical/commodity/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 100% Net Long