Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on Policy-Induced Labor/Product Shortages, China Debt Bubble-Bursting Worries, US Stagflation Fears, Retail/Airline Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.2 +2.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,463.0 +155.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.10 +.7%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 +.22%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.2 +1.9%

• ISE Sentiment Index 94.0  -6.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .88 -15.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.14 +54.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.89 +.16%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 373.39 n/a

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.02 +2.3%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 104.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 94.85 +7.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 182.27 -.02%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.85 -2.4%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.75 -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 7.5 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.25 unch.
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.55 -.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% n/a
  

• Yield Curve 127.0 n/a
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 131.70 USD/Metric Tonne +2.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -22.4 -5.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -74.8 +1.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.4 -1.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.51 n/a
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 202 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -9/100K people
• 38% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -2.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +92 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -89 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -55 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/commodity sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long