Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Policy-Induced Labor/Product Shortages, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Dollar Strength, Airline/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.5 -.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,240.0 -55.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.78 -.74%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.1 +.44%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.1 -5.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 104.0  -29.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .86 +32.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.30 +39.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.37 +1.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 354.08 +.55%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.18 +2.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 128.0 +9.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 81.02 +1.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 186.18 +2.17%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.41 -.62%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.25 +2.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 8.5 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.0 +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  64.5 -.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.10 -.42%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 109.0 +6.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -16.1 +3.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -52.8 +3.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.9 -13.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 -5.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting, 92.6% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 153 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -7/100K people
• 29% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -1.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +82 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -47 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my medical/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 100% Net Long