Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +20.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 57.7% of Issues Advancing, 38.0% Declining
• 29 New 52-Week Highs, 114 New Lows
• 36.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.1% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,566.0 +43.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,407.0 -.53%
  
• Vix 30.2 -5.4%
• Total Put/Call .97 -2.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.16 +25.8%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.75% to -.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.0 unch. 

• China Sovereign CDS 48.0 -.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.92 -.14%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,505.0 -20.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.2 +2.0%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.96%.

• S&P 500 futures -.86%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.0%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ALK)/.22
• (ADS)/2.19
• (MO)/1.08
• (BX)/1.40
• (CMCSA)/.74
• (DHR)/2.52
• (DOW)/2.04
• (HCA)/4.52
• (IP)/.89
• (JBLU)/-.39
• (MA)/2.21
• (MCD)/2.34
• (MUR)/.40
• (NOC)/5.96
• (NUE)/7.86
• (ROK)/1.94
• (SAP)/1.61
• (SHW)/1.35
• (LUV)/.07
• (TROW)/3.13
• (TSCO)/1.85
• (VLO)/1.79
  

After the Close:

• (AAPL)/1.89
• (BZH)/.67
• (BOOT)/2.21
• (CP)/.97
• (JNPR)/.53
• (KLAC)/5.45
• (MDLZ)/.73
• (RHI)/1.43
• (HOOD)/-.30
• (SYK)/2.72
• (X)/4.25
• (V)/1.70
• (WDC)/2.12
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 265K versus 286K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1665K versus 1635K prior.
• Durable Goods Orders for Dec. is estimated to fall -.6% versus a +2.6% gain in Nov.
• Durables Ex Transports for Dec. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.9% gain in Nov.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for Dec. is estimated to rise +.4% versus unch. in Nov.
• 4Q GDP is estimated to rise +5.3% versus a +2.3% gain in 3Q.
• 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +3.2% versus a +2.0% gain in 3Q.
• 4Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +6.0% versus a +6.0% gain in 3Q.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for Dec. is estimated to fall -.8% versus a -2.2% decline in Nov.
  

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for Jan. is estimated to fall to 22.0 versus 24.0 in Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Confidence report, 7Y T-Note auction and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, US Economic Data, Oil Gain, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 28.1 -9.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,780.0 +274.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.98 +.29%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.6 -1.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 42.3 -1.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 83.0  -27.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .93 +5.7%

• NYSE Arms .96 +2.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.15 -2.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 395.09 -2.4%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.70 -1.6%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 140.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.55 -1.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 209.15 -3.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.26 +.70% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 901.15 -3.12%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 15.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 8.75 +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.0 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  83.25 -1.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.13 -.09%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .18% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 74.75 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 138.45 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -16.10 +3.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 60.7 -.4 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.8 +2.5 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 +3.0 basis points
  
• 1.5%(-1.7 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, .2%(n/a) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,389 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 81%(-5.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -96/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -9.1%(-.5 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +199 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -1 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my commodity/tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my index hedges, then added them back
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Telecom -1.1% 2) Gold & Silver -.5% 3) Pharma +.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• KMB, YMAB, HTLD, ROL, HA, CLX, DISCA, ADP, T, ORA, NAVI and FFIV
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MUB 2) CFX 3) KMB 4) EWC 5) ITB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HA 2) FFIV 3) BA 4) GATO 5) KMB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +2.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +4.5% 2) Gaming +3.5% 3) Software +3.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LRN, SRRA, DKNG, LAZR, GLW, DSKE, MAT, SF, MRTN, EDIT, MATX, WMS, INBX, TXN, MSFT, GH and TIL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MAT 2) EWC 3) MFA 4) JNPR 5) EQT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LRN 2) GLW 3) RES 4) TXN 5) ADM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 73.7% of Issues Advancing, 22.3% Declining
• 29 New 52-Week Highs, 29 New Lows
• 37.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,636.0 +130.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,546.0 +1.13%
  
• Vix 30.0 -3.5%
• Total Put/Call 1.01 +14.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.40 +48.9%