Friday, January 28, 2022

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 4,431.85 +.77%


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices
  • DJIA 34,725.47 +1.34%
  • NASDAQ 13,770.57 +.01%
  • Russell 2000 1,968.51 -.98%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 72.23 -.33%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 228.87 -.89%
  • Wilshire 5000 44,699.51 +.49%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,727.99 +1.13%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,596.65 +.17%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 788.58 -.43%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,306.28 -.12%
  • NYSE Technology 3,687.33 -2.26%
  • Transports 15,048.62 -1.30%
  • Utilities 941.03 -.29%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 83.42 +.8%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 47.48 -1.64%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,445.53 -.52%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 930.38 +.03%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 467,167 -1.7%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -1,417 -479
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -35.9 -1.8%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 385,781 +7.0%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,059,564 +4.7%
  • Total Put/Call 1.05 -21.2%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.76 +4.2%
  • ISE Sentiment 92.0 +4.0 points
  • NYSE Arms 1.09 -12.3
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,604.0 -271.0 points
  • Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 3.98 -.58%
  • Volatility(VIX) 29.6 +6.0%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.5 +7.4%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.75 +4.0%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.72 +1.3%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 13,515.70 -4.3%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.645 Trillion +.62%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -5.825 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 23.1 +10.0%
  • AAII % Bears 52.9 +13.3%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 250.91 +.98%
  • Crude Oil 86.79 +2.4%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 253.99 +4.2%
  • Natural Gas 4.66 +17.3%
  • Heating Oil 277.34 +3.8% 
  • Newcastle Coal 227.0 (1,000/metric ton) +5.6%
  • Gold 1,832.21 +.79%
  • Silver 22.31 -8.4%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 523.98 -.6%
  • Copper 430.90 -4.9%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 473.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.42%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 139.20 USD/Metric Tonne +4.1%
  • Lumber 1,024.90 -10.4%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,397.42 +.95%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 645.0 USD/Short Ton -4.4%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +.1% -5.0 percentage points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +3.2% -.3 percentage point
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 15.0% unch.
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 5.14 +.3%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 224.30 +357.7%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.06 +.37%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.7 +.7 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 50.7 +10.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.2 +17.4 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change, 100.0% chance of rate hike on 3/16
  • US Dollar Index 97.29 +1.6%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,734.08 -.49%
  • Bitcoin/USD 37,054 +4.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.34 -.41%
  • Yield Curve 63.0 -12.75 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.78% +2.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.822 Trillion -.09%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11.73 -4.5%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 127.81 +12.1%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 50.29 +5.0%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 230.30 +4.4%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.8 -3.2%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.06 +5.5%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 225.94 +8.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.60 -1.25%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45% +10.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 12.0 +2.75 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 15.5 -3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.75 -1.25 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 62.83 +8.2%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 368.0 +8.2%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 67.98 +6.7%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 219.38 +2.7%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 86.25 -.75 basis point
  • Markit CMBX BBB-6 75.25 +2.25 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 13.1 unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,024.50 -1.8%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 247,000 +6.5%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 30.1 +7.9% 
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.55% -1.0 basis point
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 551,700 -7.07%
  • Langer Consumer Comfort 38.9 n/a
  • Weekly Retail Sales +15.0% +.2 percentage point
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -19.4% +8.9 percentage points
  • Nationwide Gas $3.36/gallon +.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,302 -7.99%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,565.33 +.28%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.5-12.5%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 176.33 -3.2%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 254,067 -2.3%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 1,555,773 +25.3%
  • US Covid-19:  1,265 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 74%(-18.0 percentage points) of peak on 1/14/22  -308/100K people from prior week
  • US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -10.6%(-7.8 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -.1%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth -3.1%
Leading Sectors
  • Oil Service +7.9%
  • Energy +4.5%
  • Steel +1.4%
  • Software +1.2%
  • Gambling +1.1%
Lagging Sectors
  • Social Media -4.4%
  • Video Gaming -5.2%
  • Semis -5.2%
  • Gold & Silver -7.5%
  • Alt Energy -8.3%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)
  • BBBY, SRRA, KNBE, AR, PD, NOW, FOXA, AMPH, TCDA and CNXC
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (16)
  • BZH, HA, LDOS, OLN, MMM, FCX, SAVE, MTW, RMD, CAT, CE, WDC, SYF, BAH and WAL
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Modestly Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Optimism, Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line:  Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume:   Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 29.5 -3.3%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,645.0 +128.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.50 -.01%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.7 +.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.6 +1.6% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 100.0  +12.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.04 -2.8%
  • NYSE Arms .95 +21.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.57 +.6%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 387.5 +2.1%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.03 +3.3%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.50 +1.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 218.68 +.17%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.60 -.88% 
  • Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 802.20 -.33%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 15.5 +1.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 12.5 +4.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.75 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  86.0 unch.
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.90 -.04%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .18% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 63.0 -3.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 140.15 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.7 -2.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 50.7 -15.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.2 +4.8 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 +5.0 basis points
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 1,265 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 74.0%(-2.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -43/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -10.6%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -242 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -84 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -20 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure:  50% Net Long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +23.2% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 1 Sector Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
  • 27.0% of Issues Advancing, 70.0% Declining
  • 5 New 52-Week Highs, 416 New Lows
  • 33.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 38.0% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,527.0 +8.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,564.0 +1.1%
  • Vix 31.4 +3.0%
  • Total Put/Call 1.1 +4.7%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.01 +26.9%

Thursday, January 27, 2022

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:      
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC.com:
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:
TheGatewayPundit.com: 
The Epoch Times:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.5 +.5 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 49.5 +1.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.91 -.02%. 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,481.0 -45.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.99 -2.9%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.01%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.56%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +1.07%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (ALV)/1.16
  • (BMI)/.46
  • (BAH)/.99
  • (CAT)/2.26
  • (CHTR)/7.13
  • (CVX)/3.13
  • (CHD)/.60
  • (CL)/.79
  • (GNTX)/.34
  • (LHX)/3.27
  • (LYB)/3.86
  • (PSX)/1.95
  • (VFC)/1.22
  • (WY)/.48
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The 4Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +1.3% gain in 3Q.
  • Personal Income for Dec. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.4% gain in Nov.
  • Personal Spending for Dec. is estimated to fall -.6% versus a +.6% gain in Nov.
  • The PCE Core MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in Nov.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German CPI report and the (SCHW) business update could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Worries, Dollar Strength, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume:   Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 31.8 -.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,469.0 -53.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.30 -.38%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.7 +.31%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 47.0 +2.4% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 89.0  -7.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.05 +6.1%
  • NYSE Arms .98 +5.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.03 +3.0%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 409.52 +4.1%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.87 +1.9%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.0 -5.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.60 +2.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 218.31 +1.0%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.82 -.24% 
  • Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 804.91 -10.7%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 14.0 -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 8.25 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.5 -.55 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  86.0 +2.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.86 -.26%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .19% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 66.75 -8.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 139.75 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 0.0 +16.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 65.7 +5.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.4 +4.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 -5.0 basis points
  • 0.0%(-1.5 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(-.2 percentage point) chance of no change at June 15th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 1,308 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 76.0%(-5.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -81/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -10.6%(-1.5 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +320 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +33 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -141 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure:  25% Net Long