BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Tuesday, February 01, 2022

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Global Lockdown/Mandate Fears, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Commodity/Financial Sector Strength

Posted by Gary .....at 2:48 PM

Broad Equity Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher

Sector Performance: Mixed

Volume: Above Average

Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

Volatility(VIX) 23.5 -5.5%
Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,236.0 +98.0 points

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.97 -.23%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.3 -1.2%

CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 39.8 -2.4%

ISE Sentiment Index 84.0 -4.0 points

Total Put/Call .92 -12.4%

NYSE Arms .76 -25.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.4 -1.3%

US Energy High-Yield OAS 406.71 -2.1%

European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.76 -2.0%

Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 138.0 +10.0 basis points

Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.18 -.04%

Emerging Market CDS Index 212.32 +.03%

China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.71 +.32%
Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 770.99 -2.2%

2-Year Swap Spread 15.5 unch.

TED Spread 10.5 -3.75 basis points

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.75 unch.
MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 87.0 +3.75 basis points
IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 74.75 +.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.47 +.04%
3-Month T-Bill Yield .20% +2.0 basis points

Yield Curve 60.5 +1.0 basis point

China Iron Ore Spot 138.90 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.4 +1.3 points

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 46.7 -4.7 points

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.70 -1.2 points

10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46 +1.0 basis point
0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

983 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 57.0%(-6.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -105/100K people from prior report.
New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -20.8%(-3.1 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -18 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating +121 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating -18 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Higher: On gains in my industrial/commodity/transport sector longs

Disclosed Trades: None

Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 12:41 PM

Style Underperformer:

Large-Cap Value unch.

Sector Underperformers:

1) Utilities -1.6% 2) Healthcare Providers -1.0% 3) REITs -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

PCH, EPC, MCY, T, PCG, CRUS, CLFD, MDC, KMPR, AVXL and XMTR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) GES 2) CERN 3) PCG 4) VNQ 5) AFL

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) KSCP 2) KMPR 3) CRUS 4) MDC 5) PBI

Charts:

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 11:38 AM

Style Outperformer:

Small-Cap Growth +.8%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Oil Service +3.8% 2) Steel +3.7% 3) Energy +3.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

UPS, ORMP, IMUX, BROS, AMC, FUN, SRRA, CBT, SOFI, WEBR, MOS, TECH, BJRI, XOM, NOG, DKNG, CUK, CERE, SANM, ENTG, PLUG, YMAB, ARCB, PLTR, INSM, NET, FIBK, SQ, MTTR, CTLT, SIX, CNX, HMHC, WBS, HOOD, TREX, NFLX, IIIV and FDX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) SIRI 2) UPS 3) UNFI 4) SLCA 5) KOS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) UPS 2) CBT 3) RXMD 4) ARCB 5) MLI

Charts:

Morning Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 10:53 AM

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running +28.8% Above 100-Day Average
4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
50.6% of Issues Advancing, 40.2% Declining
40 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
34.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 39.9%
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,189.0 +52.0 points
Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,972.0 -.32%
Vix 24.4 -1.9%
Total Put/Call .85 -19.0%
TRIN/Arms .80 -21.6%

Monday, January 31, 2022

Tuesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 8:49 PM

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.0 -.5 basis point.

China Sovereign CDS 50.0 -.5 basis point.

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.42 -.05%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,154.0 +17.0 points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.6 +.3%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.15%.

S&P 500 futures -.38%.

NASDAQ 100 futures -.36%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(ARCB)/2.27
(XOM)/1.94
(MAN)/2.02
(MDC)/2.49
(NVR)/99.77
(PBI)/.11
(PHM)/2.30
(SMG)/-.73
(SIRI)/.07
(SWK)/2.05
(UBS)/.27
(UPS)/3.10
(WAT)/3.49

After the Close:

(AMD)/.76
(GOOG)/27.19
(DOX)/1.18
(CB)/3.28
(EA)/3.24
(GM)/1.15
(GILD)/1.61
(HRB)/-1.25
(IEX)/1.60
(MTCH)/.60
(MANH)/.38
(MSTR)/1.49
(PYPL)/1.12
(PKI)/2.38
(SBUX)/.79

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

Construction Spending MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.4% gain in Nov.
ISM Manufacturing for Jan. is estimated to fall to 57.5 versus 58.7 in Dec.
ISM Prices Paid for Jan. is estimated to fall to 67.5 versus 68.2 in Dec.
JOLTS Job Openings for Dec. is estimated to fall to 10300K versus 10562K in Nov.

Afternoon:

Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Jan. is estimated to rise to 12.95M versus 12.44M in Dec.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Eurozone PMI report and the US weekly retail sales reports could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Russia/Ukraine De-escalation Optimism, Virus Case Plunge, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Posted by Gary .....at 2:33 PM