Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,384.65 +.1%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

Indices

• DJIA 34,058.75 -.74%

• NASDAQ 13,694.63 -.16%

• Russell 2000 2,040.93 +.63%

• S&P 500 High Beta 75.73 +.97%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 237.18 -1.69%

• Wilshire 5000 44,516.75 +.12%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,682.44 -.06%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,601.59 +.36%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 790.89 -.2%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,277.96 -.12%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,654.45 -1.8%

• Transports 15,207.21 +1.4%

• Utilities 938.25 +2.5%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 79.45 -6.4%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 47.12 -4.3%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,456.66 -.75%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 929.31 +.11%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 462,154 -1.5%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -2,844 -2,478
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -33.8 +3.7%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 348,093 -4.2%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,122,758 -2.21%

• Total Put/Call .97 -4.0%

• OEX Put/Call 1.40 -7.1%

• ISE Sentiment 82.0 +1.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms .76 -34.7% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,226.0 +126.0 points
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 3.79 -1.1%
  

• Volatility(VIX) 27.6 -1.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.7 +.04%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.99 -3.9%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.1 +12.5%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,511.73 -1.5%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.555 Trillion +.11%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +4.519 Million

• AAII % Bulls 23.4 +21.9%

• AAII % Bears 53.7 +24.3%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 264.44 +2.0%

• Crude Oil 92.22 +.4%

• Reformulated Gasoline 273.17 +2.8%

• Natural Gas 4.49 -.66%

• Heating Oil 286.22 +2.4% 
• Newcastle Coal 252.0 (1,000/metric ton) +25.4%
  

• Gold 1,891.66 -.46%
• Silver 24.23 +.96%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 549.3 +1.7%

• Copper 448.80 -.36%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 505.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 137.65 USD/Metric Tonne -2.3%

• Lumber 1,307.90 +1.16%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,445.09 -.24%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 665.0 USD/Short Ton +1.5%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.3% unch.
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +2.1% -.9 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 15.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 6.8 +31.5%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 436.74 +115.0%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 228.52 +.25%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 41.8 +25.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 72.6 +29.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.5 +1.0 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 82.8%(+3.9 percentage points) chance of +25.0-50.0 basis point hike, 17.2%(-3.9 percentage points) chance of +50.0-75.0 basis point rate hike on 3/16

• US Dollar Index 96.63 +.9%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,734.41 -.91%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 38,810 +1.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.08 -.05%
  

• Yield Curve 37.75 -12.5 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.98% +5.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.890 Trillion +.19%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11.61 -.04%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 140.75 +8.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 156.0 unch.
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 62.37 +17.6%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 221.69 -2.7%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.05 +8.1%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.11 +1.2%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 541.40 +100.3%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 30.8 -1.5%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.56% +12.0 basis points

• TED Spread 18.75 +3.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.75 -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 -6.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 66.76 -3.05%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 380.0 +1.2%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 78.0 -1.06%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 248.74 +9.7%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 102.0 -.25 basis point
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 75.50 unch.

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 12.6 -.5 percentage point
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,020.20 -.3%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 236,250 -3.0%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% -.1 percentage point
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 36.4 +15.0% 

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 4.25% +6.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 466,400 -13.2%

• Weekly Retail Sales +14.4% +.1 percentage point
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -4.3% +8.1 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $80.4M +4.7%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.57/gallon +.04/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,187 +11.4%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,525.58 -4.5%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.5 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 161.30 +1.7%

• Rail Freight Carloads 260,566 -2.8%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 1,980,803 +8.5%
• US Covid-19:  159 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 9.0%(-6.0 percentage points) of peak on 1/14/22  -99/100K people from prior week
  
• US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -72.0%(-16.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
  

Best Performing Style

•  Mid-Cap Value +.2%

Worst Performing Style

•  Large-Cap Growth -.5%
  

Leading Sectors

• Steel +6.1%

• Education +5.5%
  

• Medical Equipment +3.7%

• Defense +3.3%

• Shipping +2.4%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Papers -3.1%
  

• Disk Drives -4.2%

• Airlines -4.5%

• Computer Hardware -4.7%
  

•  Social Media -5.0%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (22)

• ISPO, KAR, LNTH, SLCA, MMSI, ZETA, CPTN, IRM, SIGI, AMPH, HII, PETQ, CHK, MRVI, AIG, ANDE, GNK, LMT, ORA and PANW
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (23)

• FSLY, PLTR, LAUR, COLL, HR, RDFN, OLO, ALRM, GVA, DELL, PACK, CLMT, BYND, GDOT, BHVN, MTZ, AMEH, FTDR, ZS, LPSN, VICR, FL and EVBG
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Russia/Ukraine Dialogue Hopes, Weak Sanctions on Russia, Declining European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Financial/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.96 -11.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,244.0 +422.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.02 +.63%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.1 -4.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.9 -6.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 unch.
  

• Total Put/Call 1.0 -.99%

• NYSE Arms 1.10 +1.85%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.54 -4.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 410.48 -4.2%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.38 -7.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 160.0 -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.41 +1.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 246.31 -8.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 30.79 -.06% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 1,041.31 +15.5%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.75 +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 18.75 -3.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  102.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.03 -.47%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.40 -1.63%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .30% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 37.75 +.75 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 137.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 41.8 +10.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 72.6 +8.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.5 -.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 -4.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 159 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 9.0%(-1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak -11/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -72.0%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +390 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +83 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/medical/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +26.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 72.7% of Issues Advancing, 24.1% Declining
• 22 New 52-Week Highs, 50 New Lows
• 32.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,144.0 +322.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,366.0 -1.2%
  
• Vix 28.1 -7.3%
• Total Put/Call .95 -5.9%
• TRIN/Arms 1.20 +11.1%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.5 +2.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 59.75 +4.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.38 -.10%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,870.0 +47.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.4 +2.9%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.65%.

• S&P 500 futures -.74%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.1%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CRI)/2.06
• (FL)/1.46 
• (STWD)/.52
• (STRA)/.95
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for Jan. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a +.3% gain in Dec.
• Personal Spending for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.6% versus a -.6% decline in Dec. 
• The PCE Core MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in Dec.
• Durable Goods Orders for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -.7% gain in Dec.
• Durables Ex Transports for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -.7% decline in Dec.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Dec.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for Jan. is estimated to fall -.5% versus a -3.8% decline in Dec.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The France PPI report, BMO Metals&Mining Conference, (BIO) investor day and the (UNM) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Weak Sanctions on Russia, Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 32.9 +6.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,619.0 -260.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.14 -.57%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 +17.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 49.6 -1.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 93.0 +2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .99 +4.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.05 +6.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.10 -.40%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 434.19 +2.3%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 83.83 +3.5%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 165.0 -6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.50 +6.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 263.67 +6.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 30.77 -1.0% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 1,041.31 +15.5%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.5 -1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 20.75 +6.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.75 -5.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  107.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.24 +.12%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.40 -1.63%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .28% -7.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 37.0 -4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 137.70 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.1 -.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 64.1 -1.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.2 -.9 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.60 +6.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 170 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 10.0%(-1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak -16/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -72.0%(-1.4 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +120 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +16 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +157 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -1.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Banks -4.7% 2) Airlines -3.2% 3) Computer Hardware -3.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GNK, PZZA, SIL, TFSL, CPE, SSB, SNBR, ZD, AHCO, FLO, MO, EXPE, CC, RILY, LUNG, BPMP, SUM, NTAP, BMRN, BKNG, EPAM, UTHR, HLF, METC, BTU, SATS, RCII, HSC, GDYN and BAND
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BLL 2) JNK 3) CEI 4) ESI 5) RF
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) YNDX 2) UTHR 3) BKNG 4) BABA 5) KDP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume