Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -2.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Banks -6.2% 2) Airlines -5.1% 3) Gambling -4.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PPG, OII, SJM, GVA, CPTN, GT, TDW, CDLX, SLCA, ICHR, SBCF, RJF, SIVB, GRPN, AXP, LEA, HWM, TREX, HBAN, IPGP, SGMS, LNC, UPST, SKX, EVRI, SKX, ZION, ARNC, LPLA, RCL, MP, RPAY, PARR, FOUR, SHEN, DXC, SPR, GDYN, PRIM, SUM, SUPN, OB, PNTG, ALBO, BIGC, ONTF, KD, AMLX, LCID, MBI, ZETA, PUBM, PACK, EHTH, NTLA, ATRA, AMBA and GDRX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KBE 2) SPHB 3) FEZ 4) IGT 5) RUSL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) VRM 2) ENDP 3) HRTX 4) VTRS 5) HAL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +3.8% 2) Homebuilding +.9% 3) Alt Energy +.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• USER, OSH, SKYH, LPSN, TASK, FRPT, FNE, AXSM, SAIL, TGT, FORG, ACHC, CENX, ARIS, SRG, EPAM, CHRW, ZS, WDAY, OXY, EDIT, BAND, MNRL, AA, LAUR, BTU, LMT, CPE and SPGI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CTIC 2) IGT 3) QUAD 4) MULN 5) AMBA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) VRTV 2) TGT 3) ATGE 4) OXY 5) WDAY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +32.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 43.1% of Issues Advancing, 53.6% Declining
• 89 New 52-Week Highs, 71 New Lows
• 40.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,398.0 -470.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,576.0 +.39%
  
• Vix 31.8 +5.6%
• Total Put/Call .90 -3.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.28 -2.3%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.25 +3.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 62.75 -3.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.63 +.08%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,932.0 +63.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.3 +.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.9%.

• S&P 500 futures -.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.28%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AZO)/17.83
• (BIDU)/9.00
• (DPZ)/4.29
• (EBIX)/.72
• (FSS)/.38
• (HRL)/.44
• (TWNK)/.23
• (IGT)/.40
• (SJM)/2.08
• (KSS)/2.11
• (ONON)/.00
• (PRGO)/.56
• (SE)/.91
• (TGT)/2.85
• (WEN)/.15
  

After the Close:

• (AMC)/-.24
• (BGS)/.42
• (FSLR)/1.06
• (HPE)/.46
• (JAZZ)/3.63
• (JWN)/1.03
• (ROST)/.97
• (CRM)/.75
• (SGMS)/-.35
• (URBN)/.52
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending for Jan. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in Dec.
• ISM Manufacturing for Feb. is estimated to rise to 58.0 versus 57.6 in Jan. 
• ISM Prices Paid for Feb. is estimated to rise to 77.5 versus 76.1 in Jan.
• ISM New Orders for Feb. is estimated to fall to 56.3 versus 57.9 in Jan.
  

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Feb. is estimated to fall to 14.45M versus 15.04M in Jan.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The State of the Union address, China Manufacturing PMI report, weekly US retail sales reports, Keefe Bruyette Woods Payments/Finance/Tech Conference, (ADT) investor day, (CVX) investor day and the (ETN) investor conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Diminishing Russia/Ukraine De-Escalation Hopes, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Soaring Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Financial/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 31.9 +15.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,735.0 -471.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.61 -1.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 +5.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 49.0 +6.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 +28.0
  

• Total Put/Call .92 -5.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.21 +59.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.65 +1.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 423.28 +2.8%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.49 +5.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 157.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.30 +2.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 292.90 +18.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 30.52 -.78% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 2,934.19 +1.6%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.5 -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 23.25 +4.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -41.5 -18.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  101.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.37 +.38%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.35 -2.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .30% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 41.5 +3.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 145.5 USD/Metric Tonne +5.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.1 -1.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 67.8 -4.8 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.4 -2.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.64 +8.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 136 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.0%(-1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak -23/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -79.0%(-7.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +116 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +59 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -226 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging  market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +28.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 47.2% of Issues Advancing, 49.8% Declining
• 55 New 52-Week Highs, 61 New Lows
• 40.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,855.0 -355.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,466.0 +.5%
  
• Vix 30.4 +10.2%
• Total Put/Call .90 -7.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.20 +57.9%