Tuesday, March 01, 2022

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        
Fox News:  
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch:   
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:  
TheGatewayPundit.com: 
Twitter: 
GETTR:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 111.25 +1.0 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 61.5 -1.25 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.18 -.09%. 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,410.0 +68.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.2 -1.6%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.09%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.34%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.31%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (ANF)/1.27
  • (DLTR)/1.77
  • (DCI)/.62
  • (DY)/-.09
  • (KFY)/1.48
  • (PDCO)/.50
After the Close:
  • (AEO)/.35
  • (PLAN)/-.10
  • (BOX)/.23
  • (AI)/-.26
  • (CHPT)/.16
  • (OKTA)/-.24
  • (SPLK)/-.20
  • (VSCO)/2.63
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
  • The ADP Employment Change for Feb. is estimated to rise to 375K versus -301K in Jan.
2:00 pm EST
  • US Fed Beige Book release.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Powell testifying to House, German retail sales report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, BofA Ag/Materials Conference, (C) investor day and the (XOM) investor day could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine War Escalation Fears, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Worries, Surging European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Financial/Airline Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume:  Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 34.9 +15.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,203.0 -667.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.39 -1.0%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.2 +5.3%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 51.2 +10.7% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 120.0 +7.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .91 -2.2%
  • NYSE Arms 1.4 +4.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.2 +5.5%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 434.74 +2.8%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.94 +7.9%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 147.0 -10.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.46 +.17%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 303.79 +5.2%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 30.39 -.49% 
  • Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 2,937.75 +.12%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 12.5 +6.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 20.75 -2.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -36.75 +4.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  103.0 +2.0 basis points
  • iShares CMBS ETF 51.78 +.95%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.99 -1.09%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .30% unch.
  • Yield Curve 40.0 -1..5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 149.2 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.1 +2.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 67.0 -.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.7 +4.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.62 +2.0 basis points
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 148 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 9.0%(+1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak +12/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -78.6%(+.4 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -379 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -90 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -82 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging  market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  • Market Exposure:  25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -2.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Banks -6.2% 2) Airlines -5.1% 3) Gambling -4.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • PPG, OII, SJM, GVA, CPTN, GT, TDW, CDLX, SLCA, ICHR, SBCF, RJF, SIVB, GRPN, AXP, LEA, HWM, TREX, HBAN, IPGP, SGMS, LNC, UPST, SKX, EVRI, SKX, ZION, ARNC, LPLA, RCL, MP, RPAY, PARR, FOUR, SHEN, DXC, SPR, GDYN, PRIM, SUM, SUPN, OB, PNTG, ALBO, BIGC, ONTF, KD, AMLX, LCID, MBI, ZETA, PUBM, PACK, EHTH, NTLA, ATRA, AMBA and GDRX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) KBE 2) SPHB 3) FEZ 4) IGT 5) RUSL
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) VRM 2) ENDP 3) HRTX 4) VTRS 5) HAL
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -.9%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +3.8% 2) Homebuilding +.9% 3) Alt Energy +.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • USER, OSH, SKYH, LPSN, TASK, FRPT, FNE, AXSM, SAIL, TGT, FORG, ACHC, CENX, ARIS, SRG, EPAM, CHRW, ZS, WDAY, OXY, EDIT, BAND, MNRL, AA, LAUR, BTU, LMT, CPE and SPGI
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CTIC 2) IGT 3) QUAD 4) MULN 5) AMBA
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) VRTV 2) TGT 3) ATGE 4) OXY 5) WDAY

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +32.9% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
  • 43.1% of Issues Advancing, 53.6% Declining
  • 89 New 52-Week Highs, 71 New Lows
  • 40.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 46.3% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,398.0 -470.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,576.0 +.39%
  • Vix 31.8 +5.6%
  • Total Put/Call .90 -3.2%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.28 -2.3%

Monday, February 28, 2022

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.25 +3.75 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 62.75 -3.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.63 +.08%. 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,932.0 +63.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.3 +.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.9%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.28%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (AZO)/17.83
  • (BIDU)/9.00
  • (DPZ)/4.29
  • (EBIX)/.72
  • (FSS)/.38
  • (HRL)/.44
  • (TWNK)/.23
  • (IGT)/.40
  • (SJM)/2.08
  • (KSS)/2.11
  • (ONON)/.00
  • (PRGO)/.56
  • (SE)/.91
  • (TGT)/2.85
  • (WEN)/.15
After the Close:
  • (AMC)/-.24
  • (BGS)/.42
  • (FSLR)/1.06
  • (HPE)/.46
  • (JAZZ)/3.63
  • (JWN)/1.03
  • (ROST)/.97
  • (CRM)/.75
  • (SGMS)/-.35
  • (URBN)/.52
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending for Jan. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in Dec.
  • ISM Manufacturing for Feb. is estimated to rise to 58.0 versus 57.6 in Jan. 
  • ISM Prices Paid for Feb. is estimated to rise to 77.5 versus 76.1 in Jan.
  • ISM New Orders for Feb. is estimated to fall to 56.3 versus 57.9 in Jan.
Afternoon:
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Feb. is estimated to fall to 14.45M versus 15.04M in Jan.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The State of the Union address, China Manufacturing PMI report, weekly US retail sales reports, Keefe Bruyette Woods Payments/Finance/Tech Conference, (ADT) investor day, (CVX) investor day and the (ETN) investor conference could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.