Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine War Escalation Fears, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Worries, Surging European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Financial/Airline Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 34.9 +15.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,203.0 -667.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.39 -1.0%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.2 +5.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 51.2 +10.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 120.0 +7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .91 -2.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.4 +4.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.2 +5.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 434.74 +2.8%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.94 +7.9%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 147.0 -10.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.46 +.17%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 303.79 +5.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 30.39 -.49% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 2,937.75 +.12%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.5 +6.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 20.75 -2.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -36.75 +4.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  103.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.78 +.95%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.99 -1.09%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .30% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 40.0 -1..5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 149.2 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.1 +2.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 67.0 -.8 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.7 +4.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.62 +2.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 148 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 9.0%(+1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak +12/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -78.6%(+.4 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -379 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -90 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -82 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging  market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  

• Market Exposure:  25% Net Long