Stocks Surging into Afternoon on More Dovish Fed Commentary, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire Hopes, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Gaining
  

• Volume:  Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 30.7 -7.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,812.0 +467.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.96 +.31%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.5 +4.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.7 -3.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 152.0 +35.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .93 +4.5%

• NYSE Arms .82 -40.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.9 -3.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 408.0 -3.2%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.18 -2.0%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 153.0 +6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.16 +.64%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 287.38 -5.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 30.2 -.66% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 5,462.83 +86.0%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 14.0 +1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 17.25 -3.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.0 +8.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  104.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.34 -.80%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.31 +.14%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .31% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 39.25 -.75 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 151.25 USD/Metric Tonne +.34%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.8 +6.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 72.9 +5.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.5 -2.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 +10.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 131 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 9.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -17/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -79.3%(-.7 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +237 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +67 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/commodity/tech/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long