Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:       

• Global Supply Lines Brace for ‘Menacing’ Economic Storm to Widen.
  
• NATO Allies Are Split on Whether They Should Talk to Putin.
• Ukraine Update: Kyiv Sets Out ‘Minimum’ Goal From Russia Talks.  
• World Moves From Shortages to Possible Glut of Covid-19 Vaccines.
  
• Traders Ready for More BOJ Bond Intervention, Big Yen Swings.
• The Yen's Plunge Is a Dilemma of Japan's Own Making.
  
• Stocks Climb Amid Oil Slide as Traders Await Talks: Markets Wrap.
  
• Oil Extends Losses on China Demand Concerns Ahead of OPEC+ Meet.
• U.S. Army Proposes to Cut Its Troop Numbers Below 1 Million.  
• Fed Factory Surveys Show Pickup in Inflation Expectations.
  
• Soaring Prices Are Changing the Way People Eat.  
• GameStop Rides Meme-Stock Revival for Longest Rally Since 2010.  
• Austin Airport Warns of Jet-Fuel Shortage as It Sees a Rush of Travelers.

 Wall Street Journal:

• Ukraine Counterattacks to Retake Territory Ahead of Talks.
• Latest Updates: Biden Says Putin Remark Wasn’t Call for Regime Change.
• Secret World of Pro-Russia Hacking Group Exposed in Leak.
• U.S. to Probe Tariff-Dodging Claim Against Chinese Manufacturers.
• Ukraine War Increases Risk of Debt Defaults by Developing Countries.
• U.S. Healthcare Spending Growth Slowed in 2021 After Covid-19 Surge.

CNBC.com:

• The bond market is flashing a warning sign a recession may be coming.
• Biden’s 2023 budget would hike taxes on the ultra-rich and corporations, boost defense spending.

 MarketWatch:  

• Apple stock just accomplished something for the first time in more than a decade.
  
• FedEx founder Fred Smith steps down as CEO.

Zero Hedge:

• Biden DOJ Kills Trump-Era Program To Catch Chinese Spies.
• Days After Biden Hailed NATO As "More United Than Ever", A Split Emerges Over Talking To Putin.
• California State University Drops SAT Test As 'Too Stressful'.
• Unprecedented Permanent Security Forum Opens With Israel & 4 Arab States United Against Iran.
• Dumbphone Sales Are Soaring As People Revolt Against "Overwhelming" Smartphones.
• Republicans Plan To Investigate Hunter Biden Laptop Story: Issa.
• Soaring Cotton Prices Could Mean Clothing Is About To Get More Expensive.
• Record Pentagon Budget Includes $6.9BN For European Deterrence Initiative & $682M To Assist Ukraine.
• "I'm A Wartime General" - Mayor Adams Pledges To Tackle Crime Wave That Has Turned NYC Into A "Laughingstock".
• "Gradually, ...Then Suddenly!".
• More Massive MOVEs.
• Federal Pressure On Big Tech To Censor COVID-19 'Misinformation' Violates Constitution: Lawsuit.
• Calm Before The Storm?
• Oil, Gold, Yen, & Yield-Curve Slapped Lower; Ruble & Crypto 'Rock'et Higher.

Newsmax: 

• Disney Vows to Fight Florida's Parental Rights Law; 'Should Never Have Been Signed'.  
• Irpin Mayor: Ukrainians Retake Captured City.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• China Is Not the Only Country to Face Financial Woes In the Property Management Arena, Now Commercial Property in the US is Uncertain.
• “You’re Asking Me to Do What?” – Madison Cawthorn Talks about the ‘DC elites’ Having Orgies and Doing Cocaine (VIDEO).
• Steve Cortes Warns Inverted Yield Curve Shows Deep Biden Recession Around the Corner.
• New Study by John Lott Jr. Reveals Biden Received More than 225,000 Excess Votes in 2020 Election.
• New Jersey Middle School Forced 12 yr Olds to Learn About Transgender Hormone Therapy without Parental Consent.
• VIDEO: Chuck Grassley Reveals Financial Links Between the Chinese Communist Party and Hunter and James Biden on Senate Floor — And Brings the Receipts.
• Biden’s Secretary of State Blinken has Family Ties with George Soros.

The Epoch Times:

• Pompeo: US Should Label China as ‘Adversary’ Rather Than ‘Competitor’ in Recognition of Growing CCP Threats.

Twitter: 

• @IntelRogue - More video of Russian forces in Mariupol with a BRM-1K and a tank. (video)
• @bennyjohnson - Kayleigh McEnany EXPOSES what Hunter Biden secret laptop is REALLY about— this will give you CHILLS. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 795,782 Reports(+7,159 from prior week) Through March 18th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.5 -1.0 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 62.25 +.5 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.68 -.04%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,360.0 -12.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.1 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.71%.

• S&P 500 futures -.1%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ASO)/1.43
• (CONN)/.48
• (MKC)/.62
  

After the Close:

• (CALM)/.83
• (CHWY)/-.08
• (LULU)/3.27
• (MU)/1.98
• (PRGS)/.85
• (PVH)/2.00
• (RH)/5.59
  

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +1.2% gain in Dec.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +1.46% gain in Dec.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March is estimated to fall to 107.0 versus 110.5 in Feb.
• JOLTS Job Openings for Feb. is estimated to fall to 11000K versus 11263K in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly US retail sales reports, 7Y T-Note auction, Australia retail sales report, Canaccord Tech 2022 and the (EZPW) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.