Friday, March 11, 2022

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Russia/Ukraine War Escalation Fears, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Concerns, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume:  Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 29.3 -3.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,792.0 +28.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.64 +.20%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.9 +1.1%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.9 +1.1% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 +5.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .96 +4.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.32 +85.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.34 +1.78%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 415.54 +.7%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 91.92 +.57%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 160.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.65 +.94%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 344.80 +2.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.8 -.28% 
  • Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 5,704.0 -.9%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.5 -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 42.75 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -27.25 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  109.0 +1.0 basis point
  • iShares CMBS ETF 50.71 -.21%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.40 -.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .38% +2.25 basis points
  • Yield Curve 25.25 -4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 157.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 54.3 -1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 60.5 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.1 -4.8 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.98 +10.0 basis points
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 83 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.0%(n/a) of 1/14 peak -na/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -86.4%(-na percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -127 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -223 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -36 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure:  25% Net Long

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