Stocks Higher into Final Hour on More Dovish FOMC Commentary Hopes, Less Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 30.8 -3.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,636.0 -94.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.31 +.12%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 13.4 +.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 49.2 +.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 117.0 +21.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .98 -2.0%

• NYSE Arms .88 +15.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.4 -2.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 425.18 +1.3%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.68 -1.5%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 157.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.24 +4.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 326.86 -3.11%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.0 -.88% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 5,506.0 +5.2%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 39.75 -7.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.75 -1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  114.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 50.48 +.11%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.59 +1.39%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .43% +5.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 27.75 +3.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 142.2 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 49.1 -5.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.8 -18.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 54.7 +19.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.87 -9.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 70 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -5/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -88.7%(-.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -56 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -242 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -77 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long