Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +16.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 33.7% of Issues Advancing, 61.6% Declining
• 16 New 52-Week Highs, 449 New Lows
• 36.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 44.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,951.0 -83.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,413 +.36%
  
• Vix 32.4 +3.9%
• Total Put/Call 1.08 -3.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.28 -39.0%

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yld Debt Angst, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 30.1 +18.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,167.0 -288.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.23 +.04%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.0 +.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 48.5 +5.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 87.0 -18.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.12 +7.7%

• NYSE Arms 1.78 +271.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 83.01 +5.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 372.66 -1.7%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 104.22 +1.9%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 200.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 120.95 -1.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 280.53 +3.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.25 -.51%
• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 4,319.70 +.4%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 34.0 +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 56.75 +1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.5 -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  123.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.16 -.84%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.47 -.92%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .84% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 36.75 (2s/10s) +7.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 143.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.1 -4.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.9 -8.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.2 -1.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.89 +1.0 basis point
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at September 21st meeting

US Covid-19:

• 139 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +3/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -89.7%(+.6 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -38 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -300 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -32 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/commodity/industrial/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -4.9%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Internet -6.3% 2) Steel -6.3% 3) Homebuilding -5.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• RPRX, UBER, ICE, ERII, QLYS, EXPI, TWI, UMH, CLDT, IRBT, PING, CDAY, IDXX, UTI, VMEO, TXG, BFAM, AMZN, WMG, DFIN, WK, HBI, SEAS, ORCC, EXPE, PETQ, DT, DDOG, SBH, NVRO, TDOC, MMS, ABNB, BLL, NYT, ALGN, ACEL, CNMD, KYMR, APA, RVLV, QRVO, CGNX, LNC, SNOW, PCTY, U, FRPT, EVA, NEX, INSP, MDB, SBOW, MSTR, COIN, EBAY, AVLR, SILK, BILL, AXON, PARR, HUBS, EDR, WOLF, NARI, TUP, DASH, FOUR, TNDM, CVNA, CXW, ETSY, RPD, AVID, HAIN, MXL, FSLY, DOCN, OM, HEAR, W and SFM
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BLL 2) IVV 3) EWT 4) LQD 5) ASHR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SGLY 2) INSG 3) SFM 4) ETSY 5) DOCN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -2.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Education -.7% 2) Shipping -1.5% 3) Utilities -1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ICPT, UDMY, LPG, EPAM, TREE, VSTO, WCC, BKNG, ALB, OGN, SBRA, MNTV, BAND, K, TRIP, NVST and TWTR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) QUAD 2) BKI 3) LPI 4) W 5) TMF

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AXGN 2) ALB 3) WCC 4) BKNG 5) K
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +11.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 9.7% of Issues Advancing, 87.7% Declining
• 49 New 52-Week Highs, 262 New Lows
• 31.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,039.0 -414.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,426 -2.0%
  
• Vix 31.7 +41.6%
• Total Put/Call 1.09 +4.8%
• TRIN/Arms 2.68 +445.80%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 120.5 -2.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS  75.25 -3.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.9 -.07%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,449.0 -5.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.2 +.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.17%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ADT)/.11
• (APD)/2.37
• (BUD)/.62
• (APTV)/.61
• (MT)/3.06
• (AAWW)/2.57
• (BDX)/2.95
• (BERY)/1.79
• (CCJ)/-.01
• (CAH)/1.52
• (CTXS)/1.17
• (COP)/3.22
• (DDOG)/.11
• (D)/1.17
• (DKNG)/-1.20
• (HBI)/.28
• (ICE)/1.42
• (K)/.93
• (PZZA)/.94
• (PH)/4.65
• (PENN)/.45
• (PWR)/1.25
• (RCL)/-4.48
• (SHOP)/.67
• (SWI)/.22
• (TRMB)/.67
• (VSTO)/1.80
• (W)/-1.53
• (ZTS)/1.22
  

After the Close:

• (Y)/15.90
• (MDRX)/.19
• (BILL)/-.16
• (SQ)/.20
• (NET)/.00
• (CGNX)/.39
• (ED)/1.48
• (DASH)/-.04
• (EOG)/3.69
• (ILMN)/.89
• (PODD)/.24
• (LYV)/-.77
• (MTZ)/-.11
• (MCK)/6.04
• (MELI)/1.41
• (MNST)/.61
• (NWSA)/.15
• (SHAK)/-.23
• (OLED)/1.02
• (YELP)/.34
• (ZG)/.27
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for April.
  

8:30 am EST

• Non-Farm Productivity for 1Q is estimated to fall -5.3% versus a +6.6% gain in 4Q.
• Unit Labor Costs for 1Q is estimated to rise +10.0% versus a +.9% gain in 1Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated at 180K versus 180K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1400K versus 1408K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Bank of England rate decision, German Factory Orders and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.