Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -1.1% 2) Foods -1.1% 3) Healthcare Providers -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SHOO, TRU, RPD, ASH, HUM, ROL, BG, QLYS, HA, AXTA, KHC, TDY, NXGN, SHW, ZWS, TENB, TPB and SAVA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MFA 2) CMG 3) GOOG 4) OSTK 5) Z
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FXLV 2) SAVA 3) GRMN 4) SHW 5) AGYS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +2.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Software +3.6% 2) Internet +3.5% 3) Alt Energy +2.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ENPH, MANH, CMG, CSGP, PYPL, ROK, LEGN, CLAR, TSE and BOKF
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HR 2) COMM 3) CMG 4) SAVA 5) SKX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ENPH 2) PZN 3) HLX 4) BSX 5) NYCB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -24.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 67.5% of Issues Advancing, 28.0% Declining
• 15 New 52-Week Highs, 27 New Lows
• 22.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,772.0 +77.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,575.0 +1.6%
  
• Vix 23.6 -4.6%
• Total Put/Call .94 -5.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.08 -18.8%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• China Getting ‘Seriously Prepared’ for Pelosi Visit to Taiwan.
• US Senators Call for Sanctions on Russian Oil Sales to China.  
• China’s Borrowing Cost Slump Shows Limits of PBOC Policy Easing.
  
• Fed Hike Will Intensify Market Risks for Asia’s Central Banks. 
• Biden Will Speak With Xi on Thursday as US-China Ties Worsen.  
• UK Economy Will Have Slowest Growth in G-7 Next Year, IMF Says.
  
• Pelosi’s Peers Say Don’t Cave to China Over Potential Taiwan Stop.  
• US Futures Climb as Earnings Ease Some Stock Gloom: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Edges Higher as US Stockpiles Shrink Ahead of Fed Meeting.  
• Biden Mulls New Pause on Student Loan Payments, $10,000 Relief.  
• The ‘Free’ Checking Myth Is Costing Consumers Over $8 Billion.  
• US New-Home Sales Fall More Than Forecast to Two-Year Low.  
• New Single-Stock ETFs Are ‘Recipe For Disaster,’ Experts Say.  
• US Consumer Confidence Drops to Lowest Since February 2021 as Inflation Bites.

Wall Street Journal:   

• Medical Education Goes Woke. Future doctors will be obliged to learn how health relates to ‘systems of oppression.’
• Big Brands Keep Raising Prices as Costs Grow.
• GM to Curtail Hiring as Profit Drops Sharply.
• Low-Cost Cities With Strong Economies Remain Attractive as Housing Market Slows.
• Inflation’s Funky Byproducts: Bacon Soap or Dairy Vodka, Anyone?

Fox News:

• Biden will speak with Chinese leader as US official warns 'only a matter of time' before 'major incident'.
• Twitter erupts after VP Harris introduces herself with more than just her name.
• White House responds to high prices by pointing to countries ‘facing famine’.
• Joe Rogan warns listeners about popular app: 'Ends with China having your data'.

CNBC.com:

• Walmart’s slashed profit outlook sends warning about state of the American consumer.
• YouTube has ‘obvious math’ problem as revenue slows dramatically from pandemic highs.
• Twitter to hold vote on Musk merger on Sept. 13.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Alphabet, Texas Instruments, Enphase and more.
• Homebuilders are boosting incentives as they suddenly struggle to sell homes.

MarketWatch:           

• Europe risks protracted gas crisis after Russia makes deeper cuts to natural gas flows, say economists.
  
• Texas Instruments stock rises on earnings beat, outlook.
  
• Chipotle stock rallies after price increases shield chain from rising costs.
  
• Visa tops earnings expectations as travel spending hits recovery milestone.
  
• Here’s the threat to markets if investors ignore ‘nontrivial’ stagflation risk.

Zero Hedge:

• FBI Sabotaged Hunter Biden Evidence To Derail Investigation: Whistleblowers.
• Ukraine Issues Blacklist Of 'Russian Propagandists', Includes US Senator & Prominent Journalists.
• China Tried To Build Spy Network Inside The Fed, Threatened To Kidnap Fed Economist.
• High Gas Prices At Pump Alter Driving Habits, AAA Finds.
• Ranchers Are Selling Off Their Cattle In Unprecedented Numbers Due To The Drought, And That Has Enormous Implications For 2023.
• Elizabeth Warren Blasts The Fed For The Recession, Her Solution Is Inflation.
• Will A 'Less Hawkish' Fed Be Enough To Satisfy The Neurotic Stock Market.
• Recent Fauci Claims Dismantled By Former CDC Director - And Fauci's Own Words.
• Layoffs Hit Labs As COVID-19 Testing Dwindles.
• Ukraine Wants Citi, JPMorgan And HSBC Prosecuted For 'War Crimes': Zelensky Aide.
• 'China Wins' If Pelosi Doesn't Go To Taiwan: McConnell.
• Ron Paul: Ugly COVID Lies.
• Waiting for Fed...
• US Actually Sold 6 Million Barrels From SPR To Hunter Biden-Tied China Firm.
• Stocks sold off whilst DXY surged past 107 - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• What's Truly Important? The Global Revaluation Is Accelerating.
• WTI Rises Modestly After Second Straight Weekly Crude Draw.
• Goldman: Markets Are Reverting To "Bad News Is Good News", But More Pain Is Coming.
• Stocks hit on Walmart profit warning & European energy crisis on eve of FOMC - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Google Jumps Despite Missing On Top & Bottom Line Thanks To Stronger Ad Sales.
• MSFT Shares Slide After Top- & Bottom-Line Miss; Blames FX, Putin, & China.
• Stocks, Crypto, & Yield Curve Tumble As 'Strong Consumer' Narrative Crushed.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• EU Parliament Member Drops Nuke on Universal COVID Vaccine Campaign – “This is the WORST Crime Ever Committed on Humanity” (VIDEO).
• Obama-Appointed Judge Rules Indiana School Must Allow Transgender Student Back on Girl’s Softball Team.
• BREAKING: Biden DOJ Opens Investigation Into Trump.
• NYC City Is Urging People To Get Their ‘Go Bag’ Ready After Issuing First Nuclear Attack PSA Since The 1960’s.
• US Attorney General Merrick Garland Says He is Open to Prosecuting President Trump (VIDEO).
• Women in Thong Bikinis Twerk on Slip n’ Slide, Guzzle Booze on New York City Subway (VIDEO).
• CNN: John Roberts Worked Up Until Last Minute in Attempt to Flip Conservative Justices on Roe v. Wade Decision.
• America’s VP: “I Am Kamala Harris, My Pronouns are She and Her, and I am a Woman Sitting at the Table Wearing a Blue Suit” (VIDEO).
• STUNNING… New England Journal of Medicine: Unvaxxed COVID Patients Contagious for LESS TIME than Vaxxed COVID Patients.
• “You Can’t Fake This!” – CNN Panel Blasts Biden Regime For Lying About the Definition of a Recession (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times: 

• EXCLUSIVE: US Oil Sales to China Could Be ‘Unlawful Activity,’ GOP Lawmakers Tell Biden.
• Bill Gates Funds China’s Scientist Recruitment Project.

Twitter: 

• @TPostMillennial - Tucker Carlson takes a look at the effects the COVID vaccine is being shown to have on people. (video) Tucker Carlson: "It turns out the entire premise behind the most commonly antidepressant drugs appears to be completely wrong." (video)
  
• @VaxxedFox - Yuval Noah Harari of the World Economic Forum: "Very Soon, We Will Be Beyond the God of the Bible" "In the Bible, God is the Creator. His chief power is to create; it creates animals and plants and humans according to his wishes. Now we are gaining this power to create life, just like God." (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 845,608 Reports(+3,035 from prior week) Through July 15th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 152.5 +3.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 83.25 +4.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.77 +.02%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,755.0 +60.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.6 -1.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.31%.

• S&P 500 futures +.75%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.37%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AEP)/1.19
• (ADP)/1.47
• (AVY)/2.37
• (BA)/-.11
• (BSX)/.42
• (BMY)/1.83
• (BG)/3.20
• (CME)/1.93
• (FSS)/.47
• (GD)/2.73
• (GPC)/2.03
• (GPI)/10.76
• (HES)/2.15
• (HLT)/1.05
• (HUM)/7.68
• (KHC)/.68
• (ODFL)/3.16
• (OSK)/.85
• (OC)/3.33
• (PAG)/4.48
• (ROK)/2.34
• (R)/4.05
• (SHW)/2.74
• (SHOP)/.03
• (SF)/1.63
• (STRA)/.87
• (WM)/1.39
  

After the Close:

• (ALGN)/2.23
• (AVB)/2.37
• (BOOT)/1.15
• (CHRW)/1.99
• (CSL)/4.99
• (CAKE)/.78
• (CTSH)/1.09
• (COLM)/.03
• (FLS)/.25
• (F)/.45
• (FWRD)/1.83
• (LRCX)/7.33
• (META)/2.56
• (NCR)/.60
• (OII)/.12
• (ORLY)/8.99
• (PTEN)/-.03
• (PPC)/1.16
• (QCOM)/2.87
• (RJF)/1.68
• (NOW)/1.55
• (SAVE)/-.42
• (TDOC)/-.59
• (URI)/6.45
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

• Advance Goods Trade Balance for June is estimated at -$103.0B versus -$104.3B in May.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for June is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +1.8% gain in May.
• Retail Inventories MoM for June is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.1% gain in May.
• Durable Goods Orders for June is estimated to fall -.4% versus a +.8% gain in May.
• Durables Ex Transports for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.7% gain in May.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.6% gain in May.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for June is estimated to fall -1.0% versus a +.7% gain in May.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,080,290 barrels versus a -445,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -109,000 barrels versus a +3,498,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate Inventories are estimated to rise by +203,710 barrels versus a -1,295,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.23% versus a -1.2% decline prior.

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to raise the benchmark Fed Funds Rate from 1.5-1.75% to 2.25-2.5%.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia CPI report and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and healthcare shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, US Dollar Strength, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 24.6 +5.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .59% +11.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,652.0 -258.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.3 -.97%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.0 -.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 42.8 +2.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 90.0 -19.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.0 +1.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.33 +60.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 87.87 +2.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 492.41 +.08%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 469.0 +8.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 124.91 +8.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 232.0 basis points +5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 150.94 +1.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 369.88 +4.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.53 -.03%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11,950.9 +4.9%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.75 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 29.25 basis points -9.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 basis points -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  137.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.64 +.23%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .96 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.76 -.39%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.44% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve -26.25 basis points (2s/10s) -4.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 110.05 USD/Metric Tonne +2.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -58.30 +1.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -94.50 +1.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.9 +2.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 51.1%(+7.2 percentage points) chance of 2.75%-3.0%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 43.6%(-1.7 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 273 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 15.7%(+.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -70.2%(+2.4 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -215 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -74 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -41 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my medical sector longs, emerging markets shorts and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to Market Neutral
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Retail -4.1% 2) Internet -3.5% 3) Alt Energy -2.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• UPS, WWE, VRRM, NKE, WING, ALGT, ULTA, WSO, PARA, MRCY, FCFS, PAYC, JWN, PINS, URBN, TSCO, PKG, BOOT, SIVB, SKX, MEDP, HBI, FND, TH, MRVI, DLTR, CLAR, ST, AEHR, QS, BURL, WMT, RVLV, PANW, RCKT, BBIO, TTD, AEO, FICO, HCP, CAL, ZS, CHWY, ROKU, KTB, MARA, RCII, CVLT, OLO, LEGN, TRU, AAN, COIN and TSE
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) WHR 2) WMT 3) KRE 4) GE 5) MMM
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) COIN 2) MNSO 3) AEO 4) MF 5) MSTR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume