Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Less Hawkish Fed Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Commodity/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.4 -4.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .8% -58.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,618.0 +80.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.95 -.68%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.0 -1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.7 +2.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 83.0 -12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.03 +10.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.34 +9.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.42 -.92%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 467.38 -2.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 470.0 -14.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 109.47 -4.6%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 221.0 basis points -14.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 140.63 -5.66%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 326.82 -3.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.79 +.51%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11,640.28 -2.5%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 44.0 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.5 basis points +1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  113.0 -7.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 49.04 +.20%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.0 +4.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.06 +.12%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.33% -2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -25.75 basis points (2s/10s) -5.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 117.15 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -61.8 +4.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -63.9 +41.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.3 +4.7 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.53 +4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 69.3%(-2.4 percentage points) chance of 3.0%-3.25%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 48.2%(+1.7 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 280 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 16.1%(+0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -70.5%(-.0 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +96 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -66 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my commodity/industrial/tech/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  75% net long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 66.6% of Issues Advancing, 29.3% Declining
• 31 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
• 25.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,600.0 +62.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,880.0 +1.1%
  
• Vix 21.6 -3.3%
• Total Put/Call 1.0 +7.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.28 +4.9%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:          

• Biden, Xi Plan In-Person Meeting as Taiwan Tensions Intensify.  
• Pelosi Set to Depart on Asia Trip, Taiwan Stop Still Unclear.   
• US Carrier Group Enters South China Sea Amid Taiwan Tensions.  
• IMF Downgrades Asia Pacific Forecast as Shocks Keep Rolling.  
• UK Business Confidence Falls as Firms Worry About Economic Slump.  
• US, China Economic Woes Point to End of Taiwan’s Chip-Led Boom.  
• The Strong Dollar Is Wreaking Havoc Globally — And It’s Just Getting Started.  
• US Futures Jump on Earnings, Cooling Fed-Hike Bets: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Set for Weekly Gain as Tight Markets Offset Slowdown Fears.  
• Manchin’s Desire to Tax Companies Helped Revive Biden Agenda.
• Apple Narrowly Tops Estimates as iPhone Fares Better Than Feared.  
• Congress Wants Answers on a ‘Significant’ Cyberattack on Courts.  
• Rents Are Out of Reach for Minimum-Wage Workers Toiling 40 Hours a Week.  
• Bears Unwinding Positions Leaves Rallying Stocks Exposed.

Wall Street Journal:    

• The Biden Stagflation Arrives. Bad policies have produced slow economic growth, falling real wages, and soaring prices.
• The Schumer-Manchin Tax and Subsidy Pact. New taxes and price controls to pay for green corporate welfare for the politically favored.
• Manchin and the GOP Dupes. Eager for home-state subsidies, they left the door open for his deal with Schumer.
• Recession Fears Loom as U.S. Economy Contracts Again.
• GDP fell an annualized 0.9% in second straight quarterly decline.
• Heard on the Street: A Recession Isn’t Necessary for Investors to Feel Lousy. 
• How the German Economic Machine Broke Down.
• Senate Climate Bill Is a Boon for Fossil Fuels.
• Indigenous Peoples, Loggers Win Cash, and a Truce, From Carbon Credits.
• Shell Posts Record Quarterly Profit on Soaring Energy Prices.
• Comcast Fails to Gain Broadband Subscribers for First Time.
• Chinese Leaders Indicate Country Is Likely to Miss Economic Growth Targets.

Fox News:

• FOX NEWS POLL:Voters reveal how they truly feel about candidates in battleground state’s races.
• Stacey Abrams meme draws comparisons on social media to infamous Hillary Clinton birthday tweet.
• Georgia Senate showdown: Herschel Walker says he ‘can take the hits’ from Raphael Warnock and Democrats.
• READ THE TWEETS:Social media users torch Biden's reaction to recession.

CNBC.com:

• Roku shares crater after company misses on earnings and warns of ‘recessionary fears’.
• Beyond Meat stock falls after conclusion of McDonald’s McPlant test.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Amazon, Apple, Roku and more.

MarketWatch:      

• 15 quality dividend stocks that you can buy on sale right now.
  
• Opinion: The Fed vowed to crush inflation with higher rates. Then the stock market rallied. Here’s why. (It’s not good news.). 
• Instacart plans to go public before year’s end, despite a frozen IPO market.  
• Bad news for borrowers: The ‘terminal rate’ — the peak of the Fed’s interest-rate cycle — may still be quite far off.

Zero Hedge:

• Manchin's 'Inflation Reduction Act' One Giant, Misnamed Nothingburger, Goldman Finds: "It Will Change Fiscal Impulse By Less Than 0.1% Of GDP".
• "I've Delivered": New Disclosures Demolish President Biden's Denials On Hunter Dealings.
• Rand Paul Demands Answers After NIH Admits Redacting COVID-19 Origins Emails 'To Prevent Misinformation'.
• A Culture Of Crime Complacency In Pritzker's Illinois.
• Taiwan Fires Warning Flares On Chinese Drone That Buzzed Airspace.
• FDA Warns Puberty-Blockers May Cause Vision-Loss In Children.
• Biden & Xi Mulling In-Person Meeting, Which Could Come At G20.
• Amazon Soars After Smashing Top-Line Expectations Thanks To Solid AWS, Blows Away Guidance.
• The Fall Of Gasoline Demand Has Been Grossly Exaggerated.
• There Won't Be Any Winners Because The Status Quo Is Corrupt Everywhere.
• Apple Jumps After Beating Top & Bottom Line; Solid iPhone Sales And China Performance.
• US equities end the day firmer; AMZN and AAPL soar after-market - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• "We Must Do Better" - Intel Plunges after Slashing Revenue Outlook (As CHIPS Act Passes).
• Recession fears mount after US shrinks for second straight quarter - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Stocks, Bonds, Gold, & Cryptos Extend Gains As White House Confirms 'Fed Pivot'.

Newsmax:

• Rep. Fallon: Biden Allowing Xi to Dictate to US.
• Mainstream Media Falls in Line Behind Biden's Bid to Redefine 'Recession'.
• German City Bans Hot Water Amid Russia Fuel Crunch.
• Dick Morris: Fox's Murdoch Not Hurting Trump With His Attacks.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• DC Mayor Bowser Requests Activation of National Guard to Deal with Influx of Illegal Aliens Being Bussed in From Texas (VIDEO).
• Los Angeles County Drops Plans to Reimpose Mask Mandate After Beverly Hills, Long Beach and Other Cities Push Back on Covid Tyrants.
• Nashville Man Busted With Enough Fentanyl-Laced Pills to Kill Roughly 150,000 People.
• HERE WE GO: San Francisco Declares State of Emergency Over Monkeypox.
• “Do You Guys Call Joe Biden ‘The Big Guy’ at the Department of Justice?” – Matt Gaetz GRILLS Senior DOJ Official About Whistleblower Allegations That FBI Covered Up Hunter Biden’s Crimes – (VIDEO).
• Bidenomics: Joe Biden Says Latest $700 Billion Green New Deal Spending Spree will “Reduce” Deficit.
• “We’re Not in a Recession” – Joe Biden as US Enters Recession After GDP Shrinks For Second Consecutive Quarter (VIDEO).
• “Oh My Gosh!” – CNBC’s Rick Santelli Reacts to Second Quarter GDP Drop, Blasts Biden Regime For Trying to Redefine Recession (VIDEO).

 The Epoch Times:

• House Passes $280 Billion CHIPS Act Without China Provision, Sends Legislation to Biden’s Desk.
• ‘Only Matter of Time Until There Is a Major Incident’ in Indo-Pacific If China Continues Aggression: Pentagon Official.

Twitter: 

• @TPostMillennial - Tucker Carlson takes a look at the effects the COVID vaccine is being shown to have on people. (video) Tucker Carlson: "It turns out the entire premise behind the most commonly antidepressant drugs appears to be completely wrong." (video)
  
• @VaxxedFox - Yuval Noah Harari of the World Economic Forum: "Very Soon, We Will Be Beyond the God of the Bible" "In the Bible, God is the Creator. His chief power is to create; it creates animals and plants and humans according to his wishes. Now we are gaining this power to create life, just like God." (video)
• @SpencerLndqst - Here is day 2 of my effort to highlight one member of the medical industry every day who has received money from puberty blocker companies while peddling the drugs to children.
  

 OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 845,608 Reports(+3,035 from prior week) Through July 15th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 147.0 -8.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 76.75 -4.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.95 -.09%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,650.0 +112.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.6 -.5%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.71%.

• S&P 500 futures +.48%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.17%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ABBV)/3.31
• (AB)/.71
• (AON)/2.55
• (AZN)/1.58
• (B)/.48
• (BLMN)/.62
• (CRI)/1.64
• (CBOE)/1.69
• (CERN)/.89
• (CHTR)/7.12
• (CVX)/5.03
• (CHD)/.72
• (CL)/.71
• (XOM)/3.89
• (LYB)/4.70
• (MGA)/.92
• (PSX)/5.76
• (PG)/1.23
• (WY)/.98
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

• The Employment Cost Index for 2Q is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +1.4% gain in 1Q.
• Personal Income for June is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in May.
• Personal Spending for June is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +.2% gain in May.
• The PCE Core MoM for June is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in May.
• The PCE Core YoY for June is estimated to rise +4.7% versus a +4.7% gain in May.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for July is estimated to fall to 55.0 versus 56.0 in June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone GDP/CPI reports and the (F) fireside chat could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish at Session Highs on Lower Long-Term Rates, Less Hawkish Fed Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Alt Energy/Utility Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.6 -2.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.95% +294.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,477.0 -253.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.82 -1.8%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.0 -.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.2 -2.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 93.0 -1.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .92 -9.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.19 +36.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.78 -2.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 479.04 -1.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 484.0 -13.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 114.74 -4.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 235.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 149.22 -4.33%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 337.98 -4.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.60 +.25%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11,938.0 -3.9%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 basis points +1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 44.5 basis points +14.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.0 basis points +1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  120.0 -16.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.94 +.82%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .96 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.0 +.20%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.35% -5.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -20.25 basis points (2s/10s) +5.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 118.25 USD/Metric Tonne +3.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -66.40 -12.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -105.0 -10.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.6 +.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.49 +8.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 73.7%(+23.5 percentage points) chance of 3.0%-3.25%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 46.2%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 280 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 16.1%(+1.4 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -70.5%(-.7 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +69 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -28 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my medical/commodity/industrial/tech/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% net long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 58.8% of Issues Advancing, 37.1% Declining
• 32 New 52-Week Highs, 28 New Lows
• 22.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,404.0 -338.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,702.0 +.59%
  
• Vix 22.7 -2.3%
• Total Put/Call .98 -3.9%
• TRIN/Arms 1.28 +45.5%