Thursday, July 01, 2004

Thursday Watch

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
BMET/.36
CAG/.42
FLML/.07

Splits
ARBA 1-for-6
CNT 2-for-1
IRM 3-for-2
PTEN 2-for-1
KWK 2-for-1
TEVA 2-for-1

Economic Data
Initial Jobless Claims for last week estimated at 342K versus 349K prior week.
Continuing Claims estimated at 2937K versus 2967K prior.
Construction Spending for May estimated +.7% versus +1.3% in April.
ISM Manufacturing for June estimated at 61.0 versus 62.8 in May.
ISM Prices Paid for June estimated at 82.0 versus 86.0 in May.
Total Vehicle Sales for June estimated at 16.8M versus 17.8M in May.
Domestic Vehicle Sales for June estimated at 13.5M versus 14.3M in May.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on STZ. Goldman reiterated Underperform on ELX and QLGC. Goldman said momentum shifting away from low-fare airlines, would shift out of AAI, FRNT, JBLU and into AMR, CAL, ALK. Goldman said MSFT win in Mass. appeal clears the last hurdle regarding use of cash, reiterated Outperform.

Late-Night News
Asian indices are mostly higher after Japan said business confidence rose to a 13-year high and U.S. interest rates fell. Iraq's new leadership and coalition government are drawing up a plan for the withdrawal of coalition troops, the Financial Times said. China will soon loosen controls and allow more money out of the country as part of efforts to move its currency toward full convertibility, Shanghai Securities News reported. Time Warner has made a preliminary offer to buy Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, the Wall Street Journal reported. The U.S. raised its reward for al-Zarqawi, an al-Qaeda linked terrorist operating in Iraq, from $10 million to $25 million, the State Department said. Saddam Hussein will appear before a special tribunal today to hear charges arising from his 23-year dictatorship. TradeSports.com is showing that the chances of Hillary Clinton being named the Democratic VP Nominee are rising 14.0% to 16.8%., while John Edwards' chances are falling 5.6% to 52.0%.

Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25 to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.10%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.07%.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open modestly higher in the morning on strength in Asia, falling oil prices and stronger-than-expected construction/ISM reports. My short-term trading indicators are still giving buy signals and the Portfolio is 150% net long heading into tomorrow.

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