Friday, July 09, 2004

Friday Watch

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
ABT/.54
DLP/.86
FAST/.41
GE/.37
GNW/.51
PWAV/-.02

Splits
BPOP 2-for-1

Economic Data
Wholesale Inventories for May estimated +.5% versus -.1% in April.

Recommendations
Goldman reiterated Outperform on FS, HOT, AMGN, GILD and TRMS. Goldman reiterated Underperform on PSS and VRTX. CNX may rise to $80 a share as the company would profit from rising coal prices sparked by a shortage in supply, Business Week reported. PIR is now cheap enough to draw investors, Business Week said. Shares of ERJ are worth at least $36, Business Week reported.

Late-Night News
Asian indices are mostly higher on rebounding financial shares. The SEC plans to sue more individuals at Invesco Funds Group, the Wall Street Journal reported. China is prepared to use foreign reserves to buy $256 million of Hong Kong government bonds to show its support for the city's government, the Hong Kong Economic Times reported. U.S. natural gas prices may rise to a record unless measures are introduced quickly to boost supply or slow demand, the Financial Times said. China's banks are the most at risk to a financial crisis and a bailout of the industry would cost about $650 billion, Standard & Poor's said. Afghan women are being targeted in attacks blamed on Taliban fighters trying to disrupt elections planned for September, the UN said. New York crude-oil futures may fall next week as rising output by OPEC boosts inventories in consuming countries, according to a Bloomberg survey of traders and analysts. Corporate insider stock purchases are up 11% year-over-year and up 75% from the first quarter, Bloomberg reported.

Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.18%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.28%.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open modestly higher in the morning on strength in Asia, stronger U.S. earnings reports and a bounce from today's sell-off. However, rising energy prices, elevated investor complacency and worries over terrorism will likely hold any rally in check. It is good to see insider buying accelerating. My short-term trading indicators are giving sell signals and the Portfolio is 25% net short.

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