Friday, July 30, 2004

Friday Watch

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
BOBJ/.17
CVX/2.72
NTE/.28

Splits
None of note.

Economic Data
Advance 2Q Gross Domestic Product estimated +3.7% versus +3.9% in 1Q.
Advance 2Q Personal Consumption estimated +2.0% versus +3.8% in 1Q.
Advance 2Q Price Deflator estimated +3.0% versus +2.9% in 1Q.
Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence reading for July estimated at 96.2 versus 96.0 in June.
Chicago Purchasing Manager for July estimated at 60.0 versus 56.4 in June.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform rating on AHC, MUR, BC, KLAC, NOC, BHI, ISG, NFX, PXD, VLO and DVN. Goldman reiterated Underperform on PCO and MGM.

Late-Night News
Asian indices are higher on strong earnings reports from technology and industrial companies in the region. Microsoft may start its online music store by the end of August, allowing consumers to buy and download digital audio tracks to their computers, the Financial Times said on its Web site. China said it may use military force against Taiwan if island President Chen Shui-bian doesn't scrap plans to amend Taiwan's constitution and fails to endorse the "one-China" policy, China Daily reported. Less than half of the 5.3 million tickets for the Olympics in Athens have been sold, the Guardian said. Target agreed to sell its Mervyn's department store chain to an investment group for approximately $1.65 billion in cash, Bloomberg said.

Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are +1.0% to +1.5% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.12%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.14%

BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open modestly higher in the morning on the end of the Democratic Convention with no terror attacks, better economic reports and short covering. However, rising oil prices and anti-business political rhetoric will likely hold any rally in check. The Portfolio is 125% net long heading into tomorrow.

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