Monday, August 09, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,067.54 +.33%
NASDAQ 1,779.61 +.15%


Leading Sectors
Energy +2.13%
Oil Service +1.88%
Commodity +1.42%

Lagging Sectors
Utilities -.52%
Airlines -.94%
Fashion -1.16%

Other
Crude Oil 44.84 +2.03%
Natural Gas 5.67 +.83%
Gold 402.50 +.12%
Base Metals 107.94 -.61%
U.S. Dollar 88.49 +.15%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.24% +.45%
VIX 18.90 -2.28%
Put/Call .91 -34.06%
NYSE Arms .81 -76.45%

Market Movers
WPSG +14.1% after beating 2Q estimates and making positive comments on 3Q.
UTEK +10.7% after saying it sees solid 3Q order growth and Adams Harkness upgrade to Strong Buy.
BID +13.8% after reporting better-than-expected 2Q results.
DDS +6.8% after the company said it would sell its credit-card business to GE for $850 million in cash.
IDCC -17.0% after missing 2Q forecast and lowering 04 outlook.
IART -8.65% after Adams Harkness downgrade to Market Perform.

Economic Data
Wholesale Inventories for June rose 1.1% versus estimates of a .6% rise and a 1.4% rise in May.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on VNO, BSX, KO, STZ, ACS, WMT, HD, IGT, FS, ASN, and AMT. Goldman reiterated Underperform on GFI, PSA, KZL and UNM. Citi SmithBarney upgraded TOY to Buy, target $22. Citi said it was very bullish on brokers, favorite is GS. Citi reiterated Buy on MGA, target $92.00. Citi reiterated Buy on MXIM, target $56.00. CZN raised to Buy at Merrill Lynch, target $14.50. CTL raised to Buy at Merrill, target $34. SIE cut to Sell at Bank of America, target $33. OTEX raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James, target $31.50. NXTP raised to Overweight at Prudential, target $18. ULCM raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James, target $13. PCLN raised to Outperform at CSFB, target $28. LTM rated Outperform at CSFB, target $32. DE raised to Buy at UBS. CHRW raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank, target $48.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are slightly higher mid-day on a muted bounce after Friday's steep declines. Nationwide Mutual Insurance said the SEC and New York Attorney General Spitzer's office are probing the company's variable insurance products, Dow Jones News reported. TiVo, which has lost market share since helping to introduce the digital video recorder in 1999, is poised to make major changes in its strategic, marketing and advertising plans, the NY Times said. Senator Kerry has been campaigning for the votes of gun owners in undecided U.S. states by depicting himself as a "lifelong hunter," including an ad that shows him posing with a shotgun, the Washington Post reported. An international team will monitor the U.S. presidential election for the first time ever in November, CNN reported. New Jersey has increased taxes more than any state other than New York since Governor McGreevey took office in 2002, the Star-Ledger reported. Affymetrix won a contract from NY City to help analyze the DNA in body parts recovered from the rubble of the collapsed World Trade Center after the 9/11 attacks, the NY Post reported. Senator Kerry's plan to reduce the number of U.S. troops in Iraq by shifting responsibility to allies faces a lack of international support, the LA Times said. ConAgra Foods will unveil its Ultragrain flour this week, which tastes like white bread and is nutritious, USA Today reported. Washington, DC, officials ruled that a gambling referendum will not be on the Nov. 2 ballot because too few valid signatures were gathered, the Bond Buyer said. Iraq's Southern Oil Co. stopped pumping oil after militia troops threatened to attack oil facilities, Agence France-Presse reported. Puma AG may increase its brand sales to as much $3.1 billion without acquisitions, CEO Zeitz told Handelsblatt. The U.S. economy will probably grow at a 3.9% annual rate from July through September, slower than the 4.2% estimated last month, according to the median of 54 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The National Association of Realtors, the U.S. industry's largest trade group, increased its estimate for home sales for the eighth time this year, saying low mortgage rates and an improving economy will spurt the housing market, Bloomberg reported. Copper prices in New York fell for a sixth session, the longest slide in 22 months, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower today as my steel shorts are rising more than my gaming and medical longs. Several longs hit stop-losses this morning and I exited the positions, leaving the Portfolio 25% net long. Today's action is disappointing as I anticipated a better bounce. The advance/decline line is poor and measures of investor anxiety are falling, notwithstanding oil's rise. I expect U.S. stocks to rise modestly into the close as shorts take profits ahead of tomorrow's Fed announcement. I also expect a more vigorous bounce tomorrow on the rate-hike and calming Fed comments.

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