Monday, August 02, 2004

Monday Close

S&P 500 1,106.62 +.44%
NASDAQ 1,892.09 +.25%


Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +1.69%
Defense +1.32%
Wireless +1.06%

Lagging Sectors
Software -.90%
Biotech -1.21%
Airlines -1.61%

Other
Crude Oil 43.80 -.05%
Natural Gas 5.83 +.21%
Gold 394.30 -.03%
Base Metals 111.49 -.57%
U.S. Dollar 89.77 -.21%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.45% -.57%
VIX 15.37 +.33%
Put/Call .77 +20.31%
NYSE Arms .92 -29.77%

After-hours Movers
BEAS +6.86% on bargain-hunting after missing 2Q estimates.
ADBE +5.08% after boosting 3Q forecast substantially.
QGENF +5.21% after beating 2Q estimates and boosting 04 outlook.
SNIC -9.15% after missing 1Q revenue estimates.
PCLN -12.01% after meeting 2Q estimates and lowering 3Q forecast.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on FS, KO, PG and IGT. Goldman reiterated Underperform on GM and F.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished modestly higher today on short covering after the weekend's terror news failed to send stocks lower. After the close, BellSouth will announce tomorrow that it will offer DirectTV service to customers in nine states, CNBC reported. BMW is recalling some X3 sport-utility vehicles amid concerns over power steering systems, Focus Online said. The U.S. government plans to borrow a net $89 billion from July through September, less than it initially predicted, as higher tax receipts reduce the federal budget-deficit forecast, Bloomberg said. Franklin Advisers will pay $50 million to settle claims that it allowed some clients to engage in improper mutual fund trading, the SEC said. Adobe Systems, the world's biggest maker of graphic-design software, said third-quarter profit will rise more than forecast. "People are not only upgrading, they are upgrading to the premium versions of Adobe software," said analyst Zorovic at Oppenheimer. Acid rain caused by the burning of fossil fuels may cut methane emissions from wetlands and help combat global warming, according to a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Lockheed Martin was selected by the U.S. Army over a team led by Northrop Grumman to start development and production of a new military spy plane, Bloomberg reported. IBM won a seven-year contract to manage Dow Chemical's computers, replacing Electronic Data Systems, Bloomberg said.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today on weakness in my technology and alternative energy longs. I exited a few longs in the afternoon as my stop-losses were triggered, bringing the Portfolio's market exposure to 100% net long. While it was definitely a positive that stocks rallied strongly off the lows, the advance/decline line was poor and most measures of investor complacency remained at high levels. I expect U.S. stocks to put in a short-term top at some point this week or early next week.

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