Monday, August 23, 2004

Monday Close

S&P 500 1,095.68 -.24%
NASDAQ 1,838.70 +.04%


Leading Sectors
Fashion +2.30%
Homebuilders +1.42%
Semis +1.06%

Lagging Sectors
Commodity -1.66%
Broadcasting -1.76%
Iron/Steel -2.18%

Other
Crude Oil 45.96 -.20%
Natural Gas 5.31 unch.
Gold 411.10 -.41%
Base Metals 108.91 -1.66%
U.S. Dollar 89.10 +1.11%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.28% +1.19%
VIX 15.88 -.75%
Put/Call .79 -17.71%
NYSE Arms 1.01 +53.03%

After-hours Movers
None of note.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on DVN and RE.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished mixed today as oil fell, interest rates rose and companies reported mixed earnings. After the close, Gap Inc. is exploring ways to expand internationally and may start a fourth brand in the U.S., the Financial Times reported. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell for a third day in four as a decline in oil prices from record highs reduced speculation economic growth will slow, Bloomberg reported. The number of U.S. adults with high blood pressure increased 30% over the past decade, according to a study in the journal Hypertension. Toyota Motor is raising U.S. prices for the Prius, its hybrid car powered by gasoline and electricity, by 2.9% as orders outstrip supply, Bloomberg reported. Iraq, which is trying to rebuild its Olympic sports after decades of decline under one of Saddam Hussein's sons, can clinch its first medal in 44 years by beating Paraguay in a soccer semifinal in Athens, Bloomberg said. Taiwan's financial markets and government offices were closed today as Typhoon Aere approaches the island with torrential rains and winds of up to 102 mph, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today as my homebuilding, telecom equip. and Internet longs rose and my steel and Chinese ADR shorts fell. I took profits in a few longs in the afternoon, leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market was pretty good today considering recent gains. However, terrorism fears ahead of the Republican Convention will likely rise over the near-term. Moreover, I expect domestic terrorism fears to peak between the Republican Convention and the 9/11 anniversary. The terror premium in oil should erode, after this time period, through year's end. Finally, I continue to expect homebuilders and tech shares to outperform this week.

No comments: