Friday, May 20, 2005

Stocks Mixed Mid-day in Quiet Trading

Indices
S&P 500 1,189.29 -.15%
DJIA 10,476.86 -.15%
NASDAQ 2,043.71 +.06%
Russell 2000 609.08 -.23%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,725.06 -.13%
S&P Barra Growth 575.32 -.22%
S&P Barra Value 609.56 -.06%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 590.82 +.04%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 720.19 +.11%
Morgan Stanley Technology 475.61 +.23%
Transports 3,625.44 +.12%
Utilities 365.16 +.17%
Put/Call .96 +23.08%
NYSE Arms 1.13 +49.01%
Volatility(VIX) 13.32 unch.
ISE Sentiment 155.00 -12.92%
US Dollar 86.65 +.65%
CRB 293.16 -.13%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 46.50 -.90%
Unleaded Gasoline 141.30 -1.77%
Natural Gas 6.33 -.35%
Heating Oil 137.10 -.76%
Gold 417.70 -.74%
Base Metals 119.58 -.37%
Copper 137.50 +.88%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.11% +.14%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +.87%
Semis +.84%
Networking +.65%

Lagging Sectors
Commodity -.83%
Steel -.99%
Gold & Silver -1.21%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is unchanged mid-day as gains in my Internet longs are being offset by losses in my Oil Tanker shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is modestly negative as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is light. Measures of investor anxiety are higher. Today’s overall market action is mixed, given another decline in energy prices and recent sharp gains. Oil tanker rates are now falling below breakeven levels for some shipowners. This is with OPEC pumping near 30-year high levels. More ships are coming online over the coming months, as well. Moreover, I continue to believe OPEC will cut production during the second half of the year. I continue to believe this is a very bearish situation for oil tanker stocks as forward estimates are substantially too high. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close on short-covering, lower energy prices and bargain hunting.

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