Monday, May 30, 2005

Weekly Outlook

There are some important economic reports and a few significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - US Markets Closed
Tues. - Chicago Purchasing Manager, Consumer Confidence
Wed. - Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid, Vehicle Sales
Thur. - Final 1Q Non-farm Productivity, Final 1Q Unit Labor Costs, Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders
Fri. - Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Change in Non-farm Payrolls, ISM Non-Manufacturing

Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - US Market Closed
Tues. - Hovnanian Enterprises(HOV), Sear Holdings(SHLD)
Wed. - ADC Telecommunications(ADCTD), Comverse Technology(CMVT), Copart Inc.(CPRT), Neiman-Marcus Group(NMG/A)
Thur. - Take-Two Interactive(TTWO)
Fri. - None of note

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - US Markets Closed
Tue. - ALTR Business Update, NVLS Mid-Quarter Update
Wed. - Friedman Billings Growth Conference, CSFB Supply Chain Conference, Smith Barney Semi Conference, Sanford C. Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, Goldman Sachs Power and Utility Conference, SG Cowen Tech Conference, Lehman Brothers Wireless/Wireline Conference
Thur. - Lehman Brothers Wireless/Wireline Conference, Sanford C. Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, Goldman Sachs Power and Utility Conference, SG Cowen Tech Conference, Smith Barney Semi Conference, Friedman Billings Growth Conference, Fed's Stern speaks
Fri. - Lehman Brothers Wireless/Wireline Conference, Goldman Sachs Power and Utility Conference, Sanford C. Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, Friedman Billings Growth Conference

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as profit-taking, global growth concerns and mixed economic data offset more optimism for a Fed "pause," a rising US dollar and lower inflation readings. As I expected, the French voted "no" to the EU Constitution. The ramifications of this are vastly underestimated in my opinion. This will likely spur further gains in the US dollar, boost demand for US Assets, dampen European growth and pressure commodity prices over the coming months. My trading indicators are still giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

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