Monday, May 02, 2005

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- French voters planning to endorse the EU constitution in a referendum May 29 regained the lead against opponents of the proposed treaty for the first time in more than a month, a poll by TNS-Sofres showed.
- Wal-Mart Stores said US sales rose about .9% in April as shoppers bought more food.
- Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett is maintaining his bet against the US dollar after his company had about $310 million in first-quarter losses from his foreign currency bets.
- Warren Buffett praised Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, the ousted CEO of AIG, and defended the use of a type of reinsurance that has come under regulatory scrutiny.
- Warren Buffett, who campaigned for John Kerry, said he opposes President Bush's plan for small private accounts as part of the solution to the Social Security problem.
- Asian technology stocks, the region's worst performers in the past year, may rebound as forecasts by companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and Elpida Memory show an industry-wide slump may be ending.
- Morgan Stanley said its board decided to keep Philip J. Purcell as Chairman and CEO, rejecting demands by former executives that he be ousted.
- Crude oil feel to a two-month low on speculation slower economic growth in the US, Europe and Japan and an increase in inventories will curb demand.
- North Korea's reported missile launch yesterday may be an effort to force the US into direct talks over the communist country's nuclear program.
- AIG prolonged a review of improper accounting and said corrections will lower its net worth by about $2.7 billion, $1 billion more than an earlier estimate.

Wall Street Journal:
- Washington Mutual received a letter from NY Attorney General Spitzer in connection with an investigation into mortgage lending practices.
- Private-equity firms Warburg Pincus and Texas Pacific Group are close to an agreement to buy retailer Neiman Marcus Group for $100 a share, or about $5 billion.

New York Times:
- Managers at AIG artificially boosted sales by booking insurance premiums before clients have formally agreed to purchase them.
- China's yuan appreciated for about 20 minutes yesterday to the strongest in a decade, boosting speculation the country's government may allow the currency to trade more freely.
- John Wiley & Sons doubled the initial printing of an unauthorized biography of Apple Computer's Steve Jobs to 100,000 because of increased interest in the book, "iCon: Steve Jobs, The Greatest Second Act in the History of Business."

Washington Post:
- US reports of credible terrorist threats against domestic targets have decreased by as much as 50% on average and are at their lowest level since before Sept. 11, 2001.

Rocky Mountain News:
- Lockheed Martin's Space Systems may win part of a $500 million contract to design and build the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Mars Telecommunications Orbiter.

LA Times:
- Walt Disney is introducing interactive attractions at its theme parks designed to appeal to children raised on computer games, digital effects and mobile phones.

MLB.Com:
- Baseball commissioner Bud Selig wants a player caught using steroids for the first time to receive a 50-game suspension.

Newsweek:
- Billionaire Ken Langone expects to deliver the details of his proposal to buy the NYSE this week.

Sunday Times:
- Marconi Corp. is accelerating efforts to sell itself to a US, European or Chinese competitor.

Nihon Keizai:
- Toyota Motor will start producing Camry cars that run on both gasoline and battery-supplied electricity in the US next year.

Times of London:
- UK Prime Minister Toy Blair is headed for a majority of between 90 and 100 seats in the May 5 general election.

Estado de S. Paulo:
- Saudi Arabia is ready to use its spare capacity of 1.5 million barrels a day to ease prices when needed, said Abdallah S. Jum'ah, chief executive of Saudi Aramco.

Financial Mail:
- IBM will next month cut 15,000 jobs across Europe as part of a companywide reorganization.

Xinhua News Agency:
- China's phone-revenue growth slowed to 8.8% in the first quarter after companies offered cheaper rates amid competition.

South China Morning Post:
- Walt Disney is considering opening a theme park in India.

El Pais:
- Sun Microsystems plans to acquire companies to boost revenue, citing an interview with CEO Scott McNealy.

Weekend Recommendations
Bulls and Bears:
- Had guests that were positive on PA, MOT, JNPR, CSCO and mixed on FDG, EBAY, MXIM, CMCSA, SBUX, HPQ.

Forbes on Fox:
- Had guests that were positive on SIRI, F, AW, NOVL, FEIC and SMMX.

Cashin' In:
- Had guests that were positive on CP, DYN, UPS, EBAY, mixed on BA, NKE, ERTS and negative on DTPI.

Cavuto on Business:
- Had guests that were positive on WLP, RAD, VZ and mixed on GLW, EEM and ABB.

Barron's:
- Had positive comments on SOV, NWS, IACI, AZR, IGT and HLT.
- Had negative comments on TM and SHRP.

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on CCU and AMLN.

Night Trading
Asian indices are +.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.06%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.04%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
AVP/.35
CECO/.51
EDS/.03
HUM/.48
OSIP/-.67
PDLI/-.11
TSN/.17

Splits
CLC 2-for-1

Economic Releases
10:00 EST
- Construction Spending for March is estimated to rise .3% versus a .4% increase in February.
- ISM Manufacturing for April is estimated to fall to 55.0 versus a reading of 55.2 in March.
- ISM Prices Paid for April is estimated to fall to 72.1 versus a reading of 73.0 in March.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mostly higher on optimism over earnings and lower energy prices. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher in the morning on bargain-hunting, short-covering and lower energy prices. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

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