Friday, May 06, 2005

Stocks Quietly Higher Mid-day On Strong Employment Report

Indices
S&P 500 1,173.55 +.08%
DJIA 10,379.91 +.38%
NASDAQ 1,965.70 +.20%
Russell 2000 596.87 +.21%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,551.20 +.08%
S&P Barra Growth 566.91 +.15%
S&P Barra Value 601.85 -.06%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 581.56 -.18%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 714.42 +.50%
Morgan Stanley Technology 446.85 +.31%
Transports 3,531.02 +.07%
Utilities 366.04 -.11%
Put/Call 1.06 unch.
NYSE Arms .74 -45.67%
Volatility(VIX) 13.68 -2.15%
ISE Sentiment 144.00 +29.7%
US Dollar 84.50 +.67%
CRB 300.30 +.03%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 51.25 +.83%
Unleaded Gasoline 148.35 +.29%
Natural Gas 6.64 -.61%
Heating Oil 143.50 -.60%
Gold 426.90 -.88%
Base Metals 122.82 +.54%
Copper 144.00 +.70%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.26% +2.68%

Leading Sectors
Steel +1.92%
I-Banks +1.82%
Software +1.12%

Lagging Sectors
Gold & Silver -.68%
Banks -.77%
Airlines -.80%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on gains in my Internet, Homebuilding and Gaming longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is modestly positive as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, most sectors are rising and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are lower, however the AAII % Bulls fell again this week to 28.57%. This is a big positive and bodes well for an extension of the recent rally. Today’s overall market action is modestly positive considering the increase in long-term rates and energy prices. In further evidence that inflation fears have peaked, gold is breaking down today. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close on short-covering, bargain-hunting and more optimism over US economic growth.

No comments: