Thursday, September 29, 2005

Stocks Higher Mid-day on Better-than-expected Economic Data

Indices
S&P 500 1,225.07 +.67%
DJIA 10,525.87 +.51%
NASDAQ 2,134.65 +.91%
Russell 2000 662.20 +.94%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,227.18 +.69%
S&P Barra Growth 585.04 +.54%
S&P Barra Value 636.07 +.84%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 583.54 +.55%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 725.14 +.46%
Morgan Stanley Technology 501.83 +1.02%
Transports 3,714.66 +1.60%
Utilities 432.96 +.92%
Put/Call .83 +13.70%
NYSE Arms .75 -3.20%
Volatility(VIX) 12.32 -2.45%
ISE Sentiment 179.00 +25.17%
US Dollar 89.38 -.10%
CRB 335.03 +.51%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 66.80 +.68%
Unleaded Gasoline 225.00 -3.82%
Natural Gas 14.40 +2.20%
Heating Oil 209.00 -2.39%
Gold 475.80 +.57%
Base Metals 131.13 +.54%
Copper 173.95 -.49%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.28% +.83%

Leading Sectors %
Internet +1.72%
Disk Drives +1.71%
Software +1.52%

Lagging Sectors
Gaming -.54%
Airlines -.68%
HMOs -2.24%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day on gains in my Internet longs, Semiconductor longs, Medical longs and Medical Information Systems longs. I exited my QQQQ/IWM shorts this morning and added to my existing longs including GOOG, NTES, BBY, SKYW, MDRX, BRCM and ISRG, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are higher and volume is slightly above average. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is slightly positive given the bounce in long-term rates and better-than-expected economic data. Despite the GOP's current woes, Tradesports.com reports that a Republican president is likely in 2008. The percentage chance of a Republican winning the 2008 presidential election has risen to 50.7% over the last couple of months from a low of 45.0%. The chances of a Democrat winning have fallen to 48.5% from a high of 55.0%. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher from current levels into the close on short-covering and quarter-end window dressing.

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