Tuesday, September 13, 2005

Stocks Modestly Lower Mid-day on Profit-taking

Indices
S&P 500 1,238.18 -.19%
DJIA 10,662.09 -.19%
NASDAQ 2,182.98 +.01%
Russell 2000 676.94 -.57%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,367.96 -.29%
S&P Barra Growth 592.44 -.26%
S&P Barra Value 640.57 -.25%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 587.63 -.62%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 747.68 -.39%
Morgan Stanley Technology 512.27 +.84%
Transports 3,603.60 -1.21%
Utilities 418.94 -.39%
Put/Call 1.04 +20.93%
NYSE Arms .94 -.87%
Volatility(VIX) 11.91 +2.40%
ISE Sentiment 132.00 -25.00%
US Dollar 87.76 +.09%
CRB 318.46 -.48%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 63.05 -.46%
Unleaded Gasoline 188.70 +.71%
Natural Gas 10.81 -2.0%
Heating Oil 183.10 +.92%
Gold 450.00 -.82%
Base Metals 128.32 -.24%
Copper 162.55 -1.13%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.13% -.74%

Leading Sectors %
Wireless +.85%
Semis +.78%
Software +.78%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Tankers -2.04%
Broadcasting -2.23%
Airlines -5.41%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on gains in my Energy-related shorts, Semiconductor longs and Internet longs. I added to my BBY and GNSS longs and various shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are lower and volume is slightly below average. Measures of investor anxiety are higher. Today’s overall market action is negative given the better-than-expected PPI reading and lower long-term rates. The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 3.2% year-over-year last week vs. a 3.0% rise the prior week. This week's gain is up from a 1.5% increase in late April and the 19th week in a row the index has risen 3% or more. The Morgan Stanley Retail Index is down 0.91% today as traders point to Best Buy's (BBY) report as evidence of a "weak consumer.” I disagree with this assessment. I expect US stocks to trade higher from current levels into the close on short-covering.

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