Friday, September 23, 2005

Stocks Modestly Higher Mid-day as Rita Falls to Category 3 Hurricane

Indices
S&P 500 1,217.21 +.21%
DJIA 10,435.26 +.13%
NASDAQ 2,119.73 +.42%
Russell 2000 656.10 +.76%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,140.32 +.29%
S&P Barra Growth 581.85 +.13%
S&P Barra Value 630.95 +.26%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 577.99 +.23%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 723.30 +.81%
Morgan Stanley Technology 496.27 +.40%
Transports 3,625.92 +.42%
Utilities 419.12 +.18%
Put/Call .98 -27.41%
NYSE Arms .75 +1.27%
Volatility(VIX) 12.93 -3.0%
ISE Sentiment 215.00 +10.82%
US Dollar 89.18 +.70%
CRB 322.35 -1.81%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 64.15 -3.53%
Unleaded Gasoline 201.50 -5.81%
Natural Gas 12.31 -3.75%
Heating Oil 192.50 -5.90%
Gold 467.00 -.70%
Base Metals 130.01 -.20%
Copper 170.00 -.58%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.24% +1.53%

Leading Sectors %
Gaming +2.83%
Airlines +2.74%
HMOs +2.66%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -1.78%
Energy -1.93%
Oil Tankers -2.18%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Retail and Internet longs and Energy-realted shorts. I covered my QQQQ and IWM shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are higher and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are lower. Today’s overall market action is positive given the risks posed by Hurricane Rita. The average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 5.80% this week from 5.74% the prior week. This is still down from 6.04% on April 1 and only 59 basis points away from record lows set in June 2003. The Homebuilding Index is up 2.4% over the last two days vs. a .85% gain for the S&P 500. The 10-year T-note yield has risen 8 basis points over this period. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as lower energy prices offset worries over Hurricane Rita.

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