Wednesday, January 25, 2006

Stocks Finish Slightly Lower as Energy Prices Fall and Long-term Rates Rise

Indices
S&P 500 1,264.68 -.17%
DJIA 10,709.74 -.02%
NASDAQ 2,260.65 -.20%
Russell 2000 716.45 -.22%
S&P Barra Growth 603.04 -.35%
S&P Barra Value 657.54 +.01%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 596.54 -.03%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 788.79 +.33%
Morgan Stanley Technology 533.41 +.15%
Transports 4,240.81 -.80%
Utilities 418.62 -1.51%
Put/Call .84 +58.49%
NYSE Arms 1.02 -9.85%
Volatility(VIX) 12.87 -3.31%
ISE Sentiment 191.00 +1.06%
US Dollar 88.43 +.02%
CRB 342.52 -.35%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 65.47 -.58%
Unleaded Gasoline 165.70 -.46%
Natural Gas 8.45 -.06%
Heating Oil 178.50 -.31%
Gold 562.50 unch.
Base Metals 169.01 +2.39%
Copper 220.10 -.11%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.47% +1.93%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +1.93%
Telecom +1.47%
Steel +1.0%

Lagging Sectors
Energy -1.95%
Disk Drives -2.41%
Oil Service -2.81%

Evening Review
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Economic Calendar
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GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on (QCOM) and (ADP).
- Reiterated Underperform on (MESA).

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Juniper Networks(JNPR) said fourth-quarter profit rose 60% as sales increased at the slowest pace in two years.
- Buyout firm General Atlantic LLC increased by 26% its bid for a stake in the NY Merc, the world’s biggest energy market.
- Kirk Kerkorian, General Motor’s(GM) fourth-largest investor, increased his stake in the automaker back to 9.9% as he pressures the company to halve its $1.1 billion dividend and reduce executive pay.
- Novellus Systems(NVLS) said fourth-quarter sales and profit beat estimates and raised its first-quarter guidance.
- Qualcomm Inc.(QCOM) said profit rose 21% as it collected more licensing fees for its technology and sales in Europe and Asia increased.
- US Treasuries fell the most since November after the government’s $22 billion two-year note sale drew the weakest demand in nine months as investors shunned yields that may be below the Fed’ benchmark interest rate in a week.
- Crude oil fell and gasoline had its largest drop in three months after an Energy Department report showed US fuel supplies increased for a fourth straight week.

Wall Street Journal:
- President Bush said the US won’t deal with the militant Islamic group Hamas, which won more than a third of the vote in elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council, unless it recognizes Israel’s right to exist.

CNBC:
- The US will announce a trade agreement with South Korea in the next week and a half which will be the largest since the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Financial Times:
- Johnson & Johnson(JNJ) may consider making an offer for Serono SA after failing to acquire Guidant Corp.(GDT).

AP:
- Richard Hatch, who won $1 million in the first season of CBS’s “Survivor” television series, was convicted of tax evasion and faces up to 13 years in prison.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly higher today on gains in my Energy-related shorts and Retail longs. I added to my IWM and QQQQ shorts in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, sector performance was mostly negative and volume was heavy. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today's action was slightly bearish considering all the crosswinds. However, I doubt many bulls or bears are too pleased with today's performance. The semis finished near session highs after (MXIM) raised 3Q guidance on their conference call. As well, retail, telecom, networking and financials held up throughout the day even as long-term rates moved higher.

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