Friday, January 13, 2006

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour Ahead of Three-day Weekend

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day on losses in my Software longs, Medical longs and Energy shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is modestly higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is average. Measures of investor anxiety are higher. The ECRI Weekly Leading Index rose to 136.50 this week from 135.60 the prior week. This is a new cycle high and up from 132.00 during the last week of May. This gauge of future economic activity is still forecasting healthy U.S. growth. I continue to believe economic growth is slowing from vigorous levels to average levels. I expect US stocks to trade mixed from current levels into the close as profit-taking and worries over Iran offsets lower long-term interest rates and short-covering.

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